Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 012027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE HAS LIMITED ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ACTIVITY /AND
OUTSIDE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER/ ARE NOW EXPERIENCING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AIDS IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST TO NEAR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY IS BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION. WE WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS ALONG I-35 NORTH OF I-20
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL EXIST. LOW TO MID 90S TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE VEERED WINDS
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE.

THE FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE
SURFACE MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFIES IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. CHANCES
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE
WILL GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE FORECAST ELEMENTS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE MVFR CIGS IN THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LIFTING TO VFR OR ARE
SCATTERING OUT. THE AIRMASS IS ONLY VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AND WITH
CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD BE UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOON.
AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THIS WILL IGNITE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
SHORT-TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN ON THE 21-01Z
WINDOW FOR STORMS AT THE TAF SITES...AND WE HAVE VCTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO
INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT TAF SITES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AROUND 5-6Z AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-20KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF TAFS THURSDAY AT DFW AS THE PROBABILITY
THAT THE CAP WILL BREAK AND A STORM WILL IMPACT DFW IS LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
CLOSELY.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  86  67  74  47 /  20  20  20  20   5
WACO, TX              65  84  67  77  48 /  20  10  10  30   5
PARIS, TX             63  79  65  72  42 /  20  20  20  30   5
DENTON, TX            65  84  66  74  44 /  20  20  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  81  66  73  44 /  20  20  20  20   5
DALLAS, TX            65  84  67  75  47 /  20  20  20  20   5
TERRELL, TX           64  82  67  74  45 /  20  20  20  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         64  81  66  76  47 /  20  10  10  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  66  77  48 /  20  10  10  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  90  66  74  45 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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