Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 010251
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS TO ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 380
BETWEEN JACKSBORO AND SULPHUR SPRINGS...AS THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER /A SCIENTIFIC NAME FOR THE CAP/ APPEARS STRONGER WITH MUCH
DRIER LOWER LEVELS AT FWD COMPARED TO OUN/S SOUNDING AT 00Z.
STORMS THAT WERE OUT BY ABILENE ARE A TRUE INDICATOR TO THIS VERY
ITEM...THOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS
HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AND STABILIZE WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
OUR COUNTIES. I HELD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TAIL-END
OF A POSSIBLE MCS THE HRRR AND SREF HAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ALL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LONG WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND EXTENT...
BUT WITH NIGHTFALL UPON US THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE ON IT...OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TTU WRF WHICH ALREADY HAD
STORMS FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN BY NOW. I IMAGINE THE 00Z VERSION
SHOULD BE BETTER.

OTHERWISE...I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THOSE PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG/WEST OF
I-35 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THOSE
AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER CHANCES WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.

AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  81  65  87  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  78  64  86  66 /  20  30  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  79  63  79  65 /  30  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            64  81  64  88  64 /  20  30  20  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          63  81  64  83  65 /  20  30  30  10  20
DALLAS, TX            66  81  65  87  66 /  10  30  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           64  81  64  83  66 /  10  30  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  64  82  66 /  10  40  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  78  64  85  66 /  20  40  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     63  84  63  93  63 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.