Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191504
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1004 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES AS A MAXIMA OF 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES TRANSLATES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THESE PRESSURE RISES ARE INDICATIVE OF
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...WHICH IS SYNONYMOUS WITH SINKING AIR.
LATEST RAP/NAM FORECASTS CONFIRM THE LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION
WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CERTAINLY CREATE A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...DESPITE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER THE REGION. WILL UPDATE TO PUSH
THE MENTION OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FARTHER TO THE EAST.
CANT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS UNTIL IT EXITS THE CWA DUE TO FAST
EASTWARD CELL MOTION AND LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME IN OUR CWA.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A PALESTINE TO ROCKDALE LINE. THE NEGATIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION IN THIS REGION IS MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DID FORM IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD
PROBABLY BE THERE...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT FOR
ANDERSON...LEON...AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
AGAIN THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS BETTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OTHERWISE HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND WIND GRIDS FOR TODAY TO
ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW HOURS OF HIGH MVFR CIGS
AROUND 025 BEFORE MID MORNING. MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY...AS A SURFACE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
METROPLEX. ANY ISOLATED SEVERE TSRA WILL DEVELOP WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH...THEN WESTERLY
AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO/IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS BY MIDDAY AND
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE. SUCH DIRECTION AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH-SOUTH
RUNWAYS AT DFW/DAL AND RESULT IN SLOWER ARRIVAL RATES.

A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SURFACE DRYLINE JUST BEFORE OR
AROUND 00Z WITH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KTS AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE TO
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/
AN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. ITS
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL DRAG A DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...
BRINGING THE REGION A FINAL SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...VEERING THE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD DISRUPT THE TYPICAL PRE-DRYLINE
MOISTURE FLUX AND REDUCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY...GREATLY LIMITING STORM CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY MCS...DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S REGIONWIDE...AND WITH LITTLE TIME FOR
MOISTURE RECOVERY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ADEQUATELY
RECOVERED FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES WILL BE BETTER IN
AREAS EAST OF I-35.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM BONHAM...TO
TERRELL...TO HEARNE. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES IN THESE
AREAS...DEW POINTS MAY HAVE SOARED TO NEAR 70F. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL
CLIMB OVER 2000J/KG. AT THIS POINT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ONLY
WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH DRAMATICALLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE PRIMARY
MITIGATING FACTORS FOR EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
THE VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LIMITING THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIFLING THOSE UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO PENETRATE THE CAP.
ALTHOUGH POPS ARE VERY LOW...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED LINEARLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...
BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
LOUISIANA BORDER.

THE WORKWEEK WILL BEGIN RAIN-FREE...BUT SPRINGLIKE WEATHER WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE PEPPERED
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN MANY OUTLYING
AND LOW-LYING AREAS. DESPITE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON
TUESDAY...DEW POINTS WILL TAKE MORE THAN 24 HOURS TO RECOVER FROM
THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING TO THE 60S BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE
WILL SET UP WEST OF THE CWA...POTENTIALLY ADVANCING AS FAR EAST AS
VERNON AND ABILENE AT PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ON FRIDAY...AND THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OUR LONGITUDE ON SATURDAY...KEEPING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  52  73  52  74 /   5   5   0   5  10
WACO, TX              83  51  73  49  74 /   5   5   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             81  50  70  47  72 /  20  10   0   0  10
DENTON, TX            78  49  72  46  73 /   5   5   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  52  72  47  73 /   5   5   0   5  10
DALLAS, TX            81  53  73  52  74 /   5   5   0   5  10
TERRELL, TX           81  52  72  49  73 /  10   5   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         82  52  73  51  74 /  10   5   0   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  52  73  51  75 /   5   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  48  72  47  75 /   5   5   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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