Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010821
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
VERY LITTLE CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...
WILL BACKDOOR INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND STALL FOR
ABOUT 24 HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND TX TECH WRF DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT IN OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AROUND 700 MB WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN
ADDITION...THE LAYER BELOW 800 MB WILL BE VERY DRY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL KEEP
SILENT 10 POPS ACROSS THE EAST TODAY WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS.
IF ISOLATED SHOWERS DO DEVELOP TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY VIRGA TO
OCCUR BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES. THE SAME SCENARIO REPEATS TOMORROW
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL AGAIN KEEP SILENT 10 POPS FOR
TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY IS
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
STARTING SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL CLIMB SOME THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH A NORTHEAST TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER... THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CLOSEST TO THE REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE
WEATHER PARAMETERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWATS ARE AROUND +2SD ABOVE NORMAL AND THE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF CELLS. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR QPF TOTALS OVER
AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WE CONTINUE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
PARTICULARS OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS
FAIRLY LOW THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM. LATEST MODEL RUNS
DO NOT INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT WE DO REMAIN IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD SHOW A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
CAPE AND LOW TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY BE WHY THE
MODELS ARE GENERATING NEARLY CONTINUOUS QPF ON THESE DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND HOPE TO BETTER REFINE ANY PARTICULAR
AREAS FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES AS THE DAYS APPROACH. PWAT VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AROUND +2SD ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1125 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

06Z TAF CONCERNS...NONE.

CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE...MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST...LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF
FORECAST. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  58  82  60  82 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  54  82  58  82 /   0   0   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             77  53  78  56  80 /  10  10  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            80  56  81  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  55  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            82  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           80  57  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  81  60  82 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            81  55  82  58  82 /   0   0   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  55  83  58  83 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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