Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...INTERSECTING THE METROPLEX ROUGHLY ALONG A FORT
WORTH TO GRAPEVINE TO MCKINNEY LINE. DFW AREA TAF SITES NORTHWEST
OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. DFW AREA TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST WERE EXPERIENCING MVFR
CIGS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DFW AIRPORT WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND HAD A VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS MORNING...
BRINGING WINDS ACROSS THE METROPLEX AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER THE METROPLEX. MAINTAINED A
TIMING OF 14Z FOR THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AT KDAL AND KDFW...WITH
CIGS HOLDING OFF AT KFTW AND KAFW UNTIL NOON/17Z. THIS IS A BIG
DISPARITY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CREEP TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...WHICH IS THE DRIVING FORCE
BEHIND THE DIFFERENT FORECASTS DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DFW
AREA TAF SITES TO ONE ANOTHER. WE WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND DFW
AREA OBS AND AMEND QUICKLY IF IT LOOKS LIKE THESE CIG TRENDS WILL
CHANGE THIS MORNING.

THE LINE OF MVFR STRATUS WAS BISECTING MCLENNAN COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH KACT AIRPORT SITTING ON THE CLEAR SIDE OF THE CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER KACT BY
13Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND THE TAF AS NECESSARY.

ASSUMING MVFR CIGS BUILD OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CLIMB TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z.
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER.

EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MVFR CIGS
BUILDING OVER KACT AFTER 09Z...AND THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
DFW AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATED
OR WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

CAVANAUGH


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
IS LOCATED ALONG A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO GREENVILLE LINE.
THIS FONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING PREVENTED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT
MID LEVELS HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...SO WITH LITTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN/THUNDER AND LEFT SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY AS A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE INDICATED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE IN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
INDICATE A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 30 TO 40 POPS IN PLACE UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL COME TO FRUITION.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

STALLEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  62  79  63  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
WACO, TX              78  61  79  63  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             76  58  75  60  74 /  10  10  20  30  40
DENTON, TX            74  59  79  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          73  59  77  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX            76  63  77  64  77 /  10  10  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         75  60  77  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  60  78  62  78 /  10  10  10  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  59  81  61  81 /   5  10  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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