Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 230811
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OFF/ON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
STEPHENVILLE...GLEN ROSE AND HICO/HAMILTON...A NON-SEVERE MCS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AVERAGING MAINLY UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS...THOUGH AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL LINGER BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-35
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MCS WEAKENS WITH A VEERING AND WEAKENING
LLJ AND STABILIZING SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF THE MCS.
THE MCS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR EASTERN CWA BY MID MORNING WITH A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST STABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST
CWA WILL BE ABLE TO RECHARGE AND DESTABILIZE FASTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO DURING PEAK HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES PUSH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
BUFR SOUNDINGS AT PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INDICATE DRIER
AIR ABOVE LCLS WITH CLOUD BASES AVERAGING 3-3.5 KFT. THESE ARE
HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 70F...SO A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH ANY
ROTATING/DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING LCLS BY MID EVENING...SO A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE.

MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL FORM OFF THE DRYLINE WELL
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MORPH INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEAN FLOW. THIS WOULD BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER LINE OF STORM WILL FROM ON THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH
AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE
E/SE COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FINAL ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SOME
LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20/30...AS STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE DISCRETE IN
NATURE AND HAVE HIGHER INSTABILITY TO INGEST FOR SOME THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES.

STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT THE FAR E/SE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WANING IN WAKE OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO EAST
TEXAS...THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DRY PACIFIC
AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
BY LATER SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK... THE NEXT UPPER
LOW DEEPENS AND SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RICHER SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 60S
WILL SURGE BACK NW ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT
ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE THIS
FEATURES LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWNS REGARDING ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY
AND ANY CAPPING INVERSION IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. WE/LL BE
DECIPHERING THESE INCONSISTENCIES MORE THIS WEEKEND AS WE GET
PASSED THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER SET UP THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

05/

&&

.ISSUED 813 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015/ THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT... POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 08Z. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE METROPLEX BY 12Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 06Z AND MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
03Z...WITH VCTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT /05Z/. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR
BY 09Z...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  70  82  66  86 /  30  50  70  30   5
WACO, TX              83  71  83  64  89 /  40  40  70  40   5
PARIS, TX             69  63  75  63  83 /  50  50  70  30   5
DENTON, TX            76  69  82  62  85 /  20  50  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  80  61  84 /  30  50  70  30   5
DALLAS, TX            78  71  83  67  87 /  30  50  70  30   5
TERRELL, TX           78  70  81  64  85 /  40  50  70  40   5
CORSICANA, TX         82  70  82  66  87 /  40  50  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  83  64  89 /  40  40  60  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  67  85  59  87 /  30  50  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05


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