Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 261735
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS OUR REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SATELLITE/OBS
REVEAL AN AREA OF EXPANSIVE STRATUS ACROSS NEB/KS AND WE HAVE HAD
OFF/ON DRIZZLE WITH STEADY MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TREK TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE THRU TONIGHT. THE
CURRENT WESTERN POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE TRACK OF THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE PCPN CHCS WEST AND SOUTH OF
OUR CWA AND HAVE REMOVED SMALL POPS. AS FAR AS THE STRATUS DRIZZLE
TODAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION...THEREBY SHUTTING OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS INCREASING. THE LOW CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD WITH TIME AND CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP DURING THE AFTN FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON INSOLATION AND CLOUDS COULD HOLD IN OUR SW ZONES THRU
DAYTIME HEATING. THE AIRMASS TODAY IS NOT OVERLY WARM AND HAVE KEPT
READINGS CONSERVATIVELY COOL PRIMARILY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

THE EFFECT OF THE COOLER/DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BIG-PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD REALLY HASN`T CHANGED
TOO MUCH SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPS STILL ON THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOCKET. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENTLY DRY FORECAST HAS WANED A TOUCH MAINLY FOR THE THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND HAVE NOW INTRODUCED A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CWA-WIDE FOR THE VERY
LAST FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO DECREASED AT
LEAST A TOUCH REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE 70S SHOULD BE COMMON...THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIMITED COVERAGE OF 80S DOES NOT LOOK AS
HIGH AS 24 HOURS AGO. AGAIN THOUGH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER
HIGH IN HIGHS JUMPING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO PLENTY OF 70S
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. LOW-TEMP WISE...THERE ARE
CERTAINLY NO FORESEEABLE FROSTS AND OR/FREEZES EVIDENT DURING THIS
TIME.

TURNING TO THE "INSIDE STORY" ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES...THE MAIN
REASON THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A TOUCH MORE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY REVOLVES
AROUND BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS NOW DEPICTING A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SLIDING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLATTENING
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SHOULD
STILL DOMINATE MOST OF WED-THURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS IS
SOMEWHAT OF A "NEW TWIST" IN THE MODEL DATA AND STILL 5-6 DAYS
AWAY...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
NOW AND KEEP THURS NIGHT- FRIDAY NIGHT VOID OF ANY RAIN CHANCE.
CONTEMPLATED KEEPING SATURDAY DAYTIME VOID OF PRECIP AS WELL...BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF RETURNING INSTABILITY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST LIMITED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FELT A
TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS WARRANTED HERE. AS IS COMMON WITH DAY
6-7 PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH...STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING
AND MAYBE EVEN POTENTIAL DELAYING/FLIP- FLOPPING DEPENDING ON HOW
MODEL TRENDS UNFOLD. BACKING UP TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN PREDOMINANT DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY- THURSDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME
STILL BEARS WATCHING FOR AT LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. WITH THIS STILL BEING 3 DAYS OUT THOUGH AND
SUPPORT FOR THIS POSSIBLE PRECIP RATHER LIMITED...FELT COMFORTABLE
KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

AS FOR POTENTIAL ELEMENTS THAT MERIT INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID)...AT THIS POINT THE ONLY NEW
ADDITION IS THE GENERIC SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS FAR...FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL
INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CALENDAR ALONE
SUGGESTS THAT ALMOST ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE BEARS WATCHING...WE
HAVE SEEN AT LEAST 2 EXAMPLES ALREADY THIS MONTH OF "EXPECTED"
INSTABILITY LEVELS 3+ DAYS AWAY FROM AN EVENT MARKEDLY-CHANGING
AS THAT DAY GOT CLOSER. IN OTHER AREAS...THERE ARE NO AFTERNOONS
THAT CURRENTLY LOOK ALL THAT CONCERNING FOR EVEN "NEAR-CRITICAL"
FIRE DANGER. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DAYS COULD FEATURE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S RANGE (INCLUDING RIGHT
AWAY MONDAY)...DECENT RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS CERTAINLY HELPED DIMINISH
WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER.

WITH VARIOUS BIG-PICTURE TRENDS/CAVEATS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS A
LOOK AT MORE DETAIL IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

MONDAY DAYTIME: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WAS ALREADY
VOID OF RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN WITH...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED OUT
THE LIMITED AREA OF SLIGHT POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS AS WELL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINS UNDER VERY WEAK/RIDGY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
CENTRAL CONUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONSISTING OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER OK/NORTH TX...AND A NORTHERN
STREAM OPEN WAVE DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS.
MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS (INCLUDING THE 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW) KEEP
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM AT LEAST 50-100 MILES SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THIS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EMANATING
FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A BIT OF A COOL FEEL
IN THE AIR. THIS IS DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE GENERALLY A 5-10 DEGREE
IMPROVEMENT IN HIGH TEMPS VERSUS TODAY...AS HAVE MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE MID-60S.

MONDAY NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS.
DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP GENERALLY
2-5 DEGREES MILDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 38-41 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE THIS IS
PROBABLY NOT A "GUARANTEED DRY" DAY FOR ALL AREAS...BUT WITH
REALLY ONLY 1 PRIMARY MODEL (ECMWF) DEPICTING LIGHT/BRIEF SHOWER
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE DRY FORECAST
STANDS FOR NOW. BESIDES...THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A COMPACT
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN IA TOWARD EASTERN KS
DURING THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD SEEMS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS WELL. AT
THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER NOTCH TO RIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24
HOURS HERE...AS A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER RIDGE OVERSPREADS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF CAME
IN A BIT COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL STILL CALL FOR
HIGHS MAINLY LOW 70S AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A
DRY...WARMER DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH WIND AND HIGHS AIMED INTO
THE MID 70S...QUESTIONS ARISE FOR THE NIGHT HOURS AS ESPECIALLY
THE LATEST GFS IS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SOUTHERN EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAINLY PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...BUT KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKING MORE
QUASI-ZONAL BY THIS TIME AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LIMITED
INSTABILITY RETURNING NORTHWARD...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS SUGGEST
AT LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE OVERALL POTENTIAL/COVERAGE AT
THIS 6-DAY RANGE...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY MID-70S.

SATURDAY DAYTIME: WITH INSTABILITY LEVELS PROGGED TO RISE HIGHER
THAN THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE GENERALLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...BOTH
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS GENERATE A BIT HEALTHIER SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED-
SCATTERED CONVECTION VERSUS FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 7 RANGE...FELT JUSTIFIED IN INTRODUCING A
GENERIC 20 PERCENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AREA WIDE. HIGH
TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED MID-70S MOST PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GETTING INTO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER TODAY. A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND WILL BE REALIZED TODAY WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WIND SHOULD GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...GUERRERO


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