Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 031043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES AND TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

SPLIT FLOW FOR TODAY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTH AND SOUTH STREAMS.
LOCAL SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE ZONAL...BUT TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS ON ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT SUGGESTS
THAT WE WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY NOT PICKING UP ON THIS WELL ENOUGH...SO I AM
GOING OUT ON A BIT OF A LIMB AND GOING QUITE A BIT MORE THAN GENERAL
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 80S. GOING FOR 91 FOR THE TRI-CITIES...FAVORING
THE HI RES NMM SOLUTION. BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THIS WOULD BREAK OUR
RECORD IN HASTINGS BY 2 DEGREES AND BE ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE
RECORD HIGH IN GRAND ISLAND. THE RAP MODEL BUMPS UP TEMPERATURES
EVEN MORE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 90S. THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE PUT US IN THE REALM OF APPROACHING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE
HAVE GREENED UP. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT CERTAIN.
COVERAGE IS A BIT SPOTTY UNTIL THE CAP BREAKS IN THE EVENING.
EVENT THEN...COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WHEN STORMS FIRE. WE WILL PROBABLY
NEED A HIGHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MAY TEMPORARILY STALL FOR A
SHORT TIME TOWARD EVENING. A SECONDARY IMPULSE WITHIN MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD BOOST CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY IN OUR
SOUTH. I DO NOT GO OVER A 60 PERCENT CHANCE ANYWHERE IN THE
CWA...AND HANG AROUND 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE TRI-CITIES. AS
FOR STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES...WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG AND LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR
APPROACHING 30-35 IN OUR NORTH...BUT PROBABLY LOWER IN MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CWA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE US SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST...BUT
THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. WENT WITH SIMILAR LOWS FOR TONIGHT
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND IN THE
50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD MON/MON NIGHT...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE OVER
SRN CALIFORNIA AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...BUT
WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE A LULL AT SOME POINT. HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE THAT LINGERING ACTIVITY MAY BE...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. AT THE SFC...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN SFC FRONT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR THE NEB/KS STATE LINE...WITH SOME SHOWING A
LOW PLACED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE S/SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT...UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF SKY
COVER /LIKELY HIGH/ AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP MAKES THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST TRICKY. MUCH OF SC NEB IS LOOKING AT ERLY WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH MORE SRLY WINDS ACROSS NC KS. FORECAST HIGH TEMP IS
A BLEND...AND COULD SEE CLOSE TO A 20 DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA
/SOME MODELS ARE MORE DRASTIC/...WITH ARND 60 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR
80 IN THE FAR SOUTH. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...AIDED ALSO BY AN INCREASING LLJ. SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH THOSE MORE ERLY WINDS/INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE
AREA. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ROUGHLY THE SERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

SIMILAR TO MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
FROM OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO WEAKEN SOME/FILL...AS IT COMES UNDER
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW REGION. AT THE SFC...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MEANDER AROUND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING SRLY
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BETTER THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH/LOW...WHICH IS STARTING TO MAKE MORE
OF A PUSH ONTO THE THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE TUES NIGHT HOURS/WED
MORNING.

WED/WED NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE PERIOD GENERALLY SHOWN BY MODELS
WHEN THAT MAIN TROUGH AXIS /CLOSED LOW?/ MAKES ITS TREK NE THROUGH
THE REGION...AS THAT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY POPS CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST...SIMILAR TO PERIODS PRIOR AND FOLLOWING...HARD TO
TRIM AREAS OUT OR RAISE POPS IN OTHERS WHEN SO MANY DETAILS HAVE YET
TO BE IRONED OUT. THE LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
LOOK TO BE PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE/FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/ACROSS THE CWA...SO AS THEIR ULTIMATE PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE
CLEAR IN THE COMING MODEL RUNS...CAN PIN DOWN BETTER DETAILS WITH
POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE NOTABLE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVEL AS THAT NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BRING
AT LEAST PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
THE CR INIT/SUPERBLEND OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

WIND WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN BY THIS EVENING...AND SHIFTS TO THE NORTH...WHEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IS SO UNCERTAIN...THAT A RATHER GENERAL VCTS WAS
INCLUDED FOR 00Z AND BEYOND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PREDICTED HIGH TODAY:
HASTINGS 91
GRAND ISLAND 91

RECORD HIGH:
HASTINGS 89 (1959)
GRAND ISLAND 92 (1959)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...HEINLEIN



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