Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 050241
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
941 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

RADAR DATA FROM ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTH AND IT SEEMS
ALL BUT CERTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
POPS INTO THE 70-90% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...FORECAST PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...SUGGEST PARCELS
ROOTED TO AROUND 800MB COULD HAVE ~700J/KG TO WORK WITH. WILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION NICKEL-SIZE HAIL IN THE HWO AS A RESULT. IT
SEEMS UNLIKELY QUARTER-SIZE HAIL OR BIGGER WILL BE REALIZED
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE...WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS OVER N AMERICA. THE FCST AREA WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. THE FLOW BETWEEN
IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED WHICH MAKES FCSTG TSTMS DIFFICULT. A WEAK
UPR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SRN CA TODAY AND MEANDER ACROSS THE
SW USA INTO CO THRU TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT
FEATURE ALOFT TO KEY ON.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU LAST EVENING HAS
TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY FROM SW-NE ACROSS KS. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE W...ALL MODELS AND THE SREF MEAN
SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT TO BE
LOCATED NEAR I-80 TOMORROW.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE IT HINGES ON TSTM POTENTIAL.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED VORTEX /MCV/
CONTS TO LIFT INTO ERN NEB. CLOUDCOVER HAS INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING. SO EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
S-CNTRL NEB.

HEATING HAS BEEN MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
IS WHERE SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN JUST S AND E OF
OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. HOWEVER...TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE GREATER
INSTABILITY COULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH INTO OUR
SRN-MOST COUNTIES...BEFORE MOVING INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. SO
SVR TSTM WATCH 130 HAS BEEN COORDINATED/ISSUED WITH SPC AND
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

PLEASE REFERENCE ALL WATCH/MESO DISCUSSION PRODUCTS FROM SPC AND
MONITOR FOR WARNING PRODUCTS FROM THIS OFFICE.

TONIGHT: REMNANT SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV WILL DEPART THE REGION. WHATEVER DEVELOPS OVER SW-S KS COULD
LIFT N AND CROSS THE FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS.

LOW-LVL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS S OF THE FRONT...
INTERCEPTING THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS COULD
INITIATE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS. A PLUME OF UP MUCAPE UP TO 750
J/KG IS FCST TO LIFT N PER THE 15Z SREF. SO SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF A STRONG STORM OR TWO FORMS...PRIMARILY AFTER
03Z.

TUE: CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS
N...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS DEFINITION FROM
TSTM ACTIVITY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSTMS TO
END FROM S TO N FOR A TIME.

MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY IN DAY FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE UP INTO WRN KS. CAN`T ARGUE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE
UPR LOW. POPS ARE HIGHEST W OF HWY 281.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST BIGTIME WARM-UP...
ESPECIALLY E OF HWY 281. JUST NOT SURE ON THIS GIVEN THAT WE
PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS LINGERING FROM
OVERNIGHT...AND IF THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS OR REFORMS
FURTHER N.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MORE MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE OF A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERAL
DAYS WORTH OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME WHEN STRONGER SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
OVERALL BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH AGAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE BY AROUND SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING AND THESE WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST POSSIBLY
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SET UP ON WEDNESDAY TO BETTER IDENTIFY THE
LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILD IN THE 70S THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS
AND DEPEND UPON FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE
WILL BE SOME FORCING THANKS TO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT WE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE BIGGER SHORTWAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO TRACK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A LONG WAYS OUT AND TIMING WILL BE
CRITICAL IN NAILING DOWN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LEFT OVER
STORMS MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BE EAST
OF US BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND BETTER CHANCES TO OUR NORTHEAST. SO
TIMING WILL BE KEY AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF THIS SYSTEM
ULTIMATELY SPEEDS UP OR SLOWS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000FT AGL
RANGE...IS OVERTAKING THE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS
WILL IMPACT KGRI AND KEAR THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A CEILING AT 500FT AGL 01-17Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST 17Z ONWARD. SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN BR IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF PERIOD...BUT AT
THIS TIME ANY SUCH RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW
6SM. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE NORTHEAST
SUSTAINED AT 10-12KTS...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BRYANT



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