Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 272024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CIRRUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS WAS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS IS
KEEPING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SUNSHINE TO THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS BEING JUST A LITTLE STRONGER. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. HAVE KEPT THE SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE LIFT WITH THE WAVE AND SQUEEZE A SPRINKLE OUT OF THE
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
STALLING AND THEN WEAKENING SATURDAY ONWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE REMAIN INDICATIONS OF A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARING OUR AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...THE INHERITED FORECAST DID HAVE A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA 00-02Z WEDNESDAY. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC NOW SEEM TO
SUGGEST THIS SUBTLE SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE LIKELY CLEARED OUR AREA BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING.

BEGINNING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST
MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS
THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...IT IS EXTREMELY HARD TO
ACCURATELY FORECAST DISTURBANCES OF THIS SIZE DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SAID...SUPERBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING
POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THESE POPS
WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD
AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY NEAR 80 BY THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIRRUS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS. IT HAS BEEN THINNING OUT A LITTLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HAVE A FEW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB



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