Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 220541
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR LATER THIS MORNING...

ALOFT: THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA WITH A TROF
OVER THE E AND A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE W. A CUT-OFF LOW
WAS UNDERNEATH OVER SRN CA WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE USA.
THE FCST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM THRU TONIGHT
WITH QUIET NW FLOW.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU LAST EVE WILL BECOME
STATIONARY...BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES AND THEN EASTWARD FROM
THE TX-OK BORDER E INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. CNTRL CANADA HIGH
PRES WAS EXTENDING S INTO THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY-TONIGHT: QUIET WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

ALTHOUGH NO "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THESE 6-DAYS (KEY WORD CURRENTLY)
...THE BIGGEST HIGHLIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY ON THE
STRONGER SIDE WITH MAINLY A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
THEREAFTER...LINGERING AND LESS-CERTAIN RAIN CHANCES THEN PERSIST
FROM SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH BY NO MEANS DOES THIS
CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE A "WEEKEND WASHOUT." AT LEAST FOR NOW...DRY
WEATHER IS ADVERTISED FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THIS IS NO
GUARANTEE ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. IF ALL GOES ROUGHLY AS FORESEEN
NOW...PRELIMINARY THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD RECEIVE
AT LEAST ANOTHER 0.25-0.50 INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN THURSDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH SOME PLACES UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 1 INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH THESE 6 DAYS...READINGS ON MOST DAYS
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE ON THE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE SIDE OF
THINGS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S...ALTHOUGH
A RETURN TO READINGS CLOSER TO 70 IS TENTATIVELY SLATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH FRIDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL
CLOUDIEST/WETTEST DAY...IT STILL FEATURES THE OVERALL-COOLEST
HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES WHERE UPPER 50S ARE
ADVERTISED...BUT IF CLOUDS/RAIN ARE PREVALENT THEN WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW PLACES STUCK IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
AS FOR LOW TEMPS...THERE ARE OFFICIALLY NO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
WHATSOEVER ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOST NIGHTS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD LOOKING TO HOLD UP IN THE
40S. HOWEVER...RIGHT OFF THE BAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
COLDER LOW TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET
MAINLY IN NEB ZONES...WITH A FEW FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY
FROST...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MIGHT NECESSITATE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THERE ARE ACTUALLY NONE...AS THERE ARE NO
AFTERNOONS THAT CURRENTLY APPEAR ALL THAT CLOSE TO HAVING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...AND NO PERIODS THAT LOOK OVERLY-WINDY.

WITH THE BIG-PICTURE BASICS COVERED...HERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
DETAIL IN MAINLY 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS:

WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE OUT A
ROGUE SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY TRYING TO FLIRT WITH
MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODELS SUPPORT LEAVING THIS PERIOD VOID OF ANY
RAIN POSSIBILITIES CWA-WIDE...DESPITE STEADILY-INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IN THE MID- UPPER LEVELS...THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL-DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT SUNRISE THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE WED NIGHT...LIGHT-BUT-STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES
GENERALLY 5-10 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THIS 24 HOURS FEATURES THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THE LATE-WEEK PRECIP EVENT...BUT ITS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY
UNTIL THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS. IN THE MID- UPPER LEVELS...THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH STEADILY SHIFTS EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TIME...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS...ACTUALLY PONDERED PULLING LOW POPS FROM MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY RETURNING OVERHEAD
LINGERED A TOKEN SLIGHT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITHIN MAINLY
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A DAYTIME
STORM MAINLY IN KS ZONES. THURSDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY POST-
MIDNIGHT) THEN FEATURES MUCH BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES...ALONG
WITH MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE UNDER LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS. HAVE AT
LEAST 30-50 POPS ALL AREAS (HIGHEST SOUTH) AND ALMOST INTRODUCED
LIKELY POPS SOUTH BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO ONLY AVERAGE A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SUPPOSE A FEW CORES WITH SMALL HAIL NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY PER THE NAM.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: DESPITE POPS ONLY BEING 50-60 PERCENT FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS BEING A RATHER WET DAY AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
CONTINUED DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE
FROM LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. AGAIN DESPITE FAIRLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THE TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT
POPS TO BE RAISED AS THIS DAY CONTINUES TO NEAR.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE 24 HOURS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VOID OF MEASURABLE PRECIP...WITH THE AREA
ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...LINGERED SOME 20-30
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN VARIOUS PLACES. MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO
ADD A THUNDER MENTION...BUT THERE IS TIME FOR THIS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: THE NEXT LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AND ACCORDINGLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 20-50
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS GOING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: STUCK WITH CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY LEAVING THIS DRY...BUT IF THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES THEN SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
NEED PROLONGED INTO MONDAY DAYTIME.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST AS A RIDGE EXPANDS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

OVERNIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT N WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU ~9K FT. LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NE-E-SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR WITH A FEW ALTOCU POSSIBLE ~9K FT. LIGHT SE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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