Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

THREE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES DOMINATE THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING
A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES....BROAD RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A VORTEX OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS IS A SPLIT
FLOW SCENARIO. WE ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STRETCHING FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA...HEADING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE.

THE RIDGING SHOULD MOSTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...LIKELY KEEPING US FROM RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...BUT I DO THINK THAT SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE WARRANTED
FOR THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS LATE TONIGHT...AT LEAST IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO RAMP UP AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PRETTY SOLID DECK OF STRATUS IN OUR
SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE 750-800 MB LEVEL TONIGHT. I THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN STRATUS FOR TONIGHT...AND NOT THINKING SPRINKLES FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS THE AIR BELOW THIS LAYER IS STRIKINGLY DRY AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING AS WELL UNTIL DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND THE DRY LAYER BELOW THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN
AND WILL PROBABLY ALLOW SOME SPRINKLES TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. BUMPED DOWN HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY AS I EXPECT THE STRATUS TO WORK IN QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING...AFTER A FAIRLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURE. I RAISED WIND GUSTS A
BIT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY USING CONSRAW AS A GUIDE. WENT CLOSER
TO HIRESWARWEAST FOR HIGHS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME LIMITED CAPE ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
THE BEST IS IN THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE NAM HAVING
MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. NEITHER OF THEM HAVE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SO LOWERED POPS JUST A LITTLE...EXPECTING
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE SPOTTY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DURING MUCH OF THE DAY EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
AROUND THE AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MUCAPE APPROACHES 2000 J/KG DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT DECREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER
IN THE EVENING. EXPECT THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH IN THE AREA. THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODELS START TO HAVE A FEW MORE DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT INTO THE PLAINS AND BRINGS IT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND KEPT
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A LOW STRATUS DECK MIGHT TRY
AND MOVE IN LATER THURSDAY MORNING IT IS AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE 3000 FT AGL. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SOME WITH DIURNAL
HEATING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY



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