Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE 06Z NAM CAME IN STILL TRYING TO INITIATE TSTMS OVER SW NEB
THIS MORNING. THIS AS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE CREATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE 08Z HRRR DOESN`T HAVE IT AND THAT
BOLSTERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING THE FCST DRY.

AFTER REVIEWING MORE DATA FOR THE 12Z TAFS...INSERTED A MENTION OF
FOG IN THE FCST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS BUT THE FCST AREA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED
BY THE SRN STREAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TWO UPR LOWS WERE OVER SRN
CA AND W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE LOWS WILL FILL AND
CONSOLIDATE AND PROGRESS THRU THE SW USA...WITH A +TILT TROF
EXTENDING FROM CO-AZ BY 12Z/FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...THE W FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SW.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES HAS DRIFTED INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN
E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT BEGIN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT
...IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING LEE TROF
AND EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TODAY: GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY. SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING
AND EXPANDING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER NRN TX/OK/KS...
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE. THIS PLUME AND
THE STRATUS WILL OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM SW-NE AND KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.

QPF: ALL MODEL GRID-SCALE AND/OR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SCHEMES ARE
OUTPUTTING LIGHT QPF TODAY. JUST DON`T SEE IT HAPPENING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OVERALL RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS DON`T HAVE THE LOOK OF SPRINKLES EITHER. SO THEY WERE
WITHDRAWN FROM THE FCST. BELIEVE THE 00Z WRF-NMM DEPICTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO VERIFY. TODAY IS QUIET AND DRY THEN SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP TO THE W LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND THEY
SHOULD PROPAGATE E AND BE MAINTAINED AS THEY ACCESS THE LLJ/WAA
AND GREATER LOW-LVL MOISTURE. NEW TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LLJ. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN PER SREF QPF PROBABILITIES WILL BE
OVER N-CNTRL KS UP INTO THE SUPERIOR-HEBRON AREA.

INSTABILITY FROM THE 03Z SREF WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDER
FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...BUT MUCAPE WILL BE UNDER 750 J/KG OVER
S- CNTRL NEB AND NOT EVEN REACH 1000 J/KG OVER N-CNTRL KS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. SO RISK FOR EVEN A STRONG
TSTM APPEARS LIMITED.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
THEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SE OF THE TRI-CITIES.

NUDGED LOW TEMPS ROUGHLY 3F ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TSTMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS OUR
REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING/LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSING LEAD WAVE...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE REMNANT/DEPARTING CONVECTION AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A MOISTURE AXIS WITH SFC DPS
IN THE MID 50S ARE FORECAST TO ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG OR SO BY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND
DRY LINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROGS AVERAGE 30KTS AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THRU THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CHCS FOR SEVERE STORMS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW PASSES FARTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE UPPER
LOW IN THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS LIFTING OUT THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE. HAVE
MAINTAINED SOME BUFFER LOW POPS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT IN GENERAL HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY: VFR TO START BUT STRATUS IS EXPANDING ACROSS KS AND WILL BE
LIFTING INTO THE TERMINALS. CURRENT TIMING OF ARRIVAL IS 17Z-18Z.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING STRATUS AND HEIGHT OF CIGS.

TONIGHT: CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR AND IFR. ALL FCST GUIDANCE IS IN
UNISON THAT CIGS LOWER TO 300-500 FT WITH MVFR VSBYS. SCT SHWRS/
TSTMS AFTER 06Z. SE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO
DUE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF CIG HEIGHT CHANGES AND MAGNITUDE OF
VSBYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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