Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 141115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES
IMPACTING THE CONUS...A WEAKER TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN TX...WITH THE CWA
SET UP IN BETWEEN. AT THE SURFACE...SEEING MORE S/SWRLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ARE STILL AFFECTED BY
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPS AS OF 3 AM ARE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR
MANY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOOKING TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE
REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS...SO
OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS
TODAY...BUT ONE CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS TO DRY OUT THE 06-12Z
PERIOD TONIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER NRN TEXAS IS STILL SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MOST SUPPORT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF TO THE S/SE...SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WE HAD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. AS THAT SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST DURING THE DAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
LOOKS TO ESP AFFECT THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE S/SERLY WITH TIME DURING THE DAY.
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH ALSO POSSIBLE. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW WARMER TEMPS POSSIBLE...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT THIS
GUIDANCE SHOWED SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR YESTERDAY...WHICH DID NOT
PAN OUT FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MET GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH MOST
OTHER MODELS...SO TEMPS REMAIN TRENDED THAT WAY. THESE
TEMPS...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER
20S THIS AFTERNOON...RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING GENERALLY INTO
THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

DID END UP ADDING A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING...SO THE CURRENT HEADLINE REPRESENTS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE RH AND WIND CRITERIA
DEVELOP. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HEADLINE AREA...RH VALUES ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IN LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS /SUSTAINED OR GUSTS/ REACHING THE NEEDED
SPEEDS FOR A HEADLINE. THAT BEING SAID...THE DAY CREW WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS ARE EVOLVING LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN CASE TEMPS DO END UP A BIT WARMER OR
THE WINDS A BIT STRONGER...AN EXPANSION OF THE HEADLINE MAY BE
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

OVERVIEW...THE BIG STORY WILL CENTER AROUND SEVERAL CHANCES OF
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF AND SPEND SEVERAL DAYS SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF
TIME FOR GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
GIVE US A PROLONGED WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW WILL ENTER OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. CUT-OFF UPPER LOWS ARE VERY DIFFICULT FOR FORECAST MODELS
TO TRACK AND THIS EVENT IS NO EXCEPTION WITH FORECAST MODELS STILL
SHOWING A WIDE ARRAY OF DIFFERING STORM TRACKS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE OVERALL SIZE OF THIS UPPER LOW EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL BE VERY EXPANSIVE WITH APPRECIABLE RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING THE TYPICALLY DRIER HIGH
PLAINS LOCATIONS. YET THE EXACT TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON
WHICH PLAINS STATE EXPERIENCES THE MOST PRECIPITATION...WHICH
COULD END UP BEING SEVERAL INCHES.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN PUMPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE FROM THE 30S INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S BY EARLY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST FORECAST MODELS HAVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY INITIALLY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
PLAINS AND THUS WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE
CURRENTLY PROJECTED SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY PUT US MORE IN A COOL RAIN PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THANKFULLY THE AIRMASS IS
STILL PLENTY WARM THAT WE DO NOT NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW. HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE IN THE 60S. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
FORECAST MODELS STILL HAVE STORM TRACKS THAT VARY BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH HINDERS
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...YOU MAY WANT TO CONTINUE
TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES AS THE STORM TRACK
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

MONDAY...MOST FORECAST MODELS FINALLY TRACK THE UPPER LOW FAR
ENOUGH EAST OF OUR AREA TO BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE. THE
MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH WINDS...AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN DEPARTING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. SRLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND
AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073-082-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP


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