Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 260443
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER HAVE
DOMINATED THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL IN TURN PLAY A ROLE ON A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH 10+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST ABUNDANT SATURATION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NOTED OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS THIS AREA SHOWS MUCH LESS SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE OUTLOOK AREA DEPICT A DRIZZLE TYPE
ATMOSPHERE. PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A DREARY TYPE MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SIMILAR TYPE START TO THE DAY AS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THESE
SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE DIFFICULT OVER THE SHORT TERM.
ESPECIALLY DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES WE
GET OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
GET SOCKED IN TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD STAY PRETTY STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES. COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HIGHS
COULD BE UNDER DONE IF THAT IS THE CASE FOR THAT PART OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS
ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SFC...ERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
CWA SITS IN BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SPEEDS MAY BE GUSTY TO START
SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...MAIN QUESTION
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CAN CREEP FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT THE CWA. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW IS STARTING
TO SHIFT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND BY 00Z TUESDAY HAS NOT MADE A
WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS EAST. HAD INHERITED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR BOTTOM 3 NC KS COUNTIES...AND SAW NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THAT...MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS US COMPLETELY...A FEW HANG ON TO THAT
SMALL CHANCE.

MODELS DO VARY SOME WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS PUSHED IT EAST OF THE MO RIVER
BY 00Z WED...THE GFS LINGERS IT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD TREND...AS IT WOULDNT TAKE A
WHOLE FOR AT LEAST SMALL POPS TO BE ADDED TO SRN AREAS.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE/END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS REMAINS GOOD...WITH THAT RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WRN CONUS PUSHING EAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVED ONTO THE PAC NW
COAST. THIS WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE DRY WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST WED-FRI. MORE SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT ENERGY MOVES FURTHER INTO THE
ROCKIES. SOME QUESTION WITH WHETHER OR NOT SATURDAY MAY SEE
PRECIP...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON MON/TUE REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL...A TOUCH BELOW FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH. STILL
LOOKING AT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON WED TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 80 POSSIBLE BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

STRATUS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARD EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY


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