Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BLUSTERY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PLUMMET BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED
WINDS...COULD RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BARRING A CHANGE IN FUEL STATUS. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO ADVERTISE THESE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING HWO IN CASE FUEL STATUS HAS NOT CHANGED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHERWISE...WITH DEEP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO NEAR CONVECTIVE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID AFTERNOON AS
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE DRY
PROFILE...HOWEVER...CANT IMAGINE EVEN A SPRINKLE REACHING THE
GROUND UNDER THE GIVEN SCENARIO.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO RELAX. THEN...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW
THIS MORNINGS READINGS DESPITE THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS MODIFYING A
BIT. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ALOFT: THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SPLIT OVER N AMERICA THRU NEXT SUN WITH
THE FCST AREA AFFECTING BY BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS AT VARIOUS
TIMES. TUE-THU NW FLOW WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND A RIDGE
MOVING THRU THU NIGHT. AN UPR LOW WILL HOVER OVER SRN CA MOST OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME MOBILE...MOVING THRU HERE FRI WHILE
INITIATING CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC ARE THE
MOST ROBUST WITH CYCLOGENESIS. SPREAD THEN INCREASES SAT-SUN IN WHAT
THE MODELS DO WITH THE DEPARTING TROF. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY ALSO
DEVELOPS WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING IN OFF THE PAC.

SURFACE: A COOL FRONT SLIDES THRU TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES WED.
THIS HIGH SHIFTS E OF THE REGION THU. FRI LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CO
AND EJECTS E ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER. PREDICTABILITY IS THEN LOW SAT-
SUN. CANADIAN HIGH PRES PROBABLY BUILDS IN...BUT WEAK NRN STREAM LOW
PRES COULD SLIDE SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SO NO GUARANTEES ON A DRY
WEEKEND.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: DRY AFTERNOON COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER VERY NICE SPRING
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TUE-THU: NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TUE WILL
BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES SE THRU THE
SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS KEEP GENERATING SPOTTY SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG AND
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND THEY INSIST ON TRYING TO MOVE
THEM INTO THE SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. WHILE THIS IS
DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS/...I
JUST DON`T SEE THEM SURVIVING INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE. SO POPS WERE REMOVED AND/OR REDUCE IN AREA AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF A SHWR/TSTM OVER THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA THU /W OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEB-PLAINVILLE KS/
...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO REMOVE THEM.

FRI: LOOKING WET! THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUTS .50 TO 1" OF QPF.
STRONG QG FORCING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MID-LVL
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA AND THAT MEANS NO
DRY SLOT AND SUBSTANTIAL FORCING/ASCENT IN THE COMMAHEAD.

WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COOL ENOUGH WITH HIGH TEMPS. THICK CLOUD COVER
AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARGUE FOR MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE 40S. COMBINED WITH BRISK E WINDS AND FRI PROBABLY ENDS UP A
RAW NASTY DAY. BUT THE RAIN IS NEEDED.

SAT: THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS
DOES MAKE SENSE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROF.

SUN: PROBABLY A SHORTWAVE TROF PER THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW NEXT SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WITH DEEP MIXING...EXPECT VERY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...GUSTING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30KT RANGE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



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