Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 251043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL TALLYING OVER ONE INCH AT HASTINGS AND
AURORA WITH RAIN STILL FALLING.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO TODAY AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PROGS 24HRS AGO. WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS WITH LESSER CHC FOR THUNDER
LINGERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THIS BEING SAID SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND
WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS WITH CONVECTION IN NC
NEB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST SOME CHC FOR PCPN
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH A SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR EARLY AFTN.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM THRU THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER AND HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVE. CLOUDS THEN
THICKEN/LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN. WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE MORE SO THAN FOG BUT HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR BOTH.

AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
PCPN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
WORK EASTWARD WITH TIME AND HAVE SMALL CHCS FOR RAIN FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE NUMBER 1 THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD INVOLVES A PATTERN
CHANGE TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER REGIME...WITH
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON TRACK TO MAKE A RUN AT 80-DEGREE HIGHS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE NO
"GUARANTEE" TO STAY THIS WAY...ACTUALLY HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN
WHATSOEVER IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
PERIODS. PRIOR TO THAT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE CURRENT
LONG TERM COMES RIGHT AWAY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ONLY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING QUITE FORTUNATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS PICKED UP 1-2+ INCHES (LOCALLY 3+ INCHES) OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST 7-10 DAYS...AS THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE
LOOKING QUITE SLIM AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE BIG PICTURE...IT TRULY IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES RISING HIGHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SUNDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY IS SLATED TO BE SUNDAY (HIGHS
ONLY MID 50S TO LOW 60S)...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY IN THE
60S BEFORE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD 70S BY THU-FRI...AND LIKELY A
FEW MORE 80S THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (ESPECIALLY PER THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION). OTHER THAN A GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 30S RIGHT
AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF A WIDESPREAD FROST
AND/OR FREEZE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.

AS FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THERE ARE PRESENTLY NONE
FORESEEN. FIRSTLY...THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SECONDLY...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS AFTERNOONS WITH EVEN "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER. EVEN IF A FEW DAYS HAPPEN TO FEATURE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (SUCH AS MONDAY) OR POTENTIALLY GUSTY BREEZES
(SUCH AS FRIDAY)...THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED
SPRING GREEN-UP HAVE ALREADY RENDERED FIRE DANGER CONSIDERABLY
LOWER THAN 2+ WEEKS AGO.

WITH THE HIGH POINTS COVERED ABOVE...HERE IS SOME GREATER DETAIL
MAINLY IN 12-24-HOUR BLOCKS...

SUNDAY DAYTIME: THIS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY OVERALL...AND AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS COULD HAVE A
DECENT COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST ZONES
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG...AND ALSO STAND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A
WEAK/RIDGY PATTERN WILL EXIST IN A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN PRIMARY TROUGHS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS AND ALSO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL EASTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-20 MPH WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...GRADUALLY ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM A
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WELL UP OVER EASTERN CANADA.
IN COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER COVERING SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2
OF THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR POSSIBLE MEASURABLE LIGHT
RAIN (ALBEIT ONLY 30 PERCENT) CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT LEAST FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ISSUES GIVEN THE STEADY
BREEZES...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY
FOG/DRIZZLE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS VERY POSSIBLY BEING DRY CWA-WIDE. FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL LINGER A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT 100
PERCENT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AM NOT FORESEEING ANY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE
OBVIOUSLY TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT RUNNING WITH
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF WESTERN AREAS HANGING ONTO LOW CLOUDS
LONGER THAN EAST-NORTHEAST ZONES...THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
MODEST TEMP GRADIENT HERE...AND THUS WILL AIM FROM MID-UPPER 50S
SOUTHWEST 1/2...TO MAINLY LOW 60S NORTHEAST 1/2.

SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS (ESPECIALLY GFS)
SUGGEST THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE CWA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE MAJORITY OF EVIDENCE
SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE PREVIOUSLY-DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS OF RAINFALL FOCUSES 100+ MILES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FEED IN ON EAST-
NORTHEAST BREEZES...NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS
TIME AROUND...AND IN FACT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MOST PLACES...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK...AND NUDGED MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE
37-40 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD MOST FAVORED FOR
MID 30S. EVEN SO...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE FROST
SETUP.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: PRIMARY 00Z MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHIFTING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO OK/NORTH TX...WHILE A MODEST
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH BOTH OF THESE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAINING WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID...PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS (MAINLY PER GFS)...AND WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR
NOW DESPITE DWINDLING SUPPORT. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY 10-15
MPH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...AND WITH MORE
SUNSHINE VERSUS SUNDAY...HAVE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 61-66 DEGREES.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS IN BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS THAT FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD SPARK SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT 4 DAYS OUT TO "RUIN" THE GOING
DRY FORECAST. DAYTIME BREEZES NORTHERLY GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH
AND HAVE HIGHS AIMED UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: WITH BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LARGELY AGREEING
ON LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALOFT...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN THE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY
5. HIGH TEMPS AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S
AND ANY LOW 70S MOST FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS PREDICTABLY START
TO DIVERGE IN THE DETAILS...BOTH STILL SUPPORT A DOMINANT MID-
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.
WITH A RETURN TO PREVAILING SOUTH BREEZES...HAVE HIGH TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 72-74 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE IT END UP 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DAY-7
UNCERTAINTY...FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY...BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH
AND WARMER WITH HIGHS AIMED 77-80. AS WITH THURSDAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS END UP ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD WITH VARYING CIGS FROM LIFR TO VFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TREKS TO THE EAST. RAIN HAS ALREADY
ENDED AT KEAR AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF KGRI ANYTIME
NOW. THERE IS THE PTOENTIAL FOR REDUCD VSBYS IN BR/FG ON THE EDGE
OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TONIGHT IN EASTERLY
LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE BUT WILL FAVOR A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
COMPONENT OVERALL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.