Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 042037
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
337 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 130 UNTIL 9 PM FOR PART OF N-CNTRL KS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTS OVER N AMERICA. THE FCST AREA WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS. THE FLOW BETWEEN
IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED WHICH MAKES FCSTG TSTMS DIFFICULT. A WEAK
UPR LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SRN CA TODAY AND MEANDER ACROSS THE
SW USA INTO CO THRU TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT
FEATURE ALOFT TO KEY ON.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU LAST EVENING HAS
TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY FROM SW-NE ACROSS KS. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPR SYSTEM TO THE W...ALL MODELS AND THE SREF MEAN
SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT TO BE
LOCATED NEAR I-80 TOMORROW.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE IT HINGES ON TSTM POTENTIAL.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED VORTEX /MCV/
CONTS TO LIFT INTO ERN NEB. CLOUDCOVER HAS INHIBITED DAYTIME
HEATING. SO EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
S-CNTRL NEB.

HEATING HAS BEEN MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
IS WHERE SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT STRONG-SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN JUST S AND E OF
OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. HOWEVER...TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE GREATER
INSTABILITY COULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH INTO OUR
SRN-MOST COUNTIES...BEFORE MOVING INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. SO
SVR TSTM WATCH 130 HAS BEEN COORDINATED/ISSUED WITH SPC AND
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

PLEASE REFERENCE ALL WATCH/MESO DISCUSSION PRODUCTS FROM SPC AND
MONITOR FOR WARNING PRODUCTS FROM THIS OFFICE.

TONIGHT: REMNANT SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MCV WILL DEPART THE REGION. WHATEVER DEVELOPS OVER SW-S KS COULD
LIFT N AND CROSS THE FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS.

LOW-LVL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS S OF THE FRONT...
INTERCEPTING THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS COULD
INITIATE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS. A PLUME OF UP MUCAPE UP TO 750
J/KG IS FCST TO LIFT N PER THE 15Z SREF. SO SOME SUB-SEVERE HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF A STRONG STORM OR TWO FORMS...PRIMARILY AFTER
03Z.

TUE: CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS
N...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS DEFINITION FROM
TSTM ACTIVITY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...EXPECT THE THREAT OF TSTMS TO
END FROM S TO N FOR A TIME.

MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY IN DAY FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE UP INTO WRN KS. CAN`T ARGUE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE
UPR LOW. POPS ARE HIGHEST W OF HWY 281.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST BIGTIME WARM-UP...
ESPECIALLY E OF HWY 281. JUST NOT SURE ON THIS GIVEN THAT WE
PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS LINGERING FROM
OVERNIGHT...AND IF THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS OR REFORMS
FURTHER N.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 4 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE CIGS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WITH IFR VSBYS
IN SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE. NE WINDS 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON CIGS AND OCCURRENCE/TIMING OF SHWRS/TSTMS.

TONIGHT: MVFR STRATUS CIGS SHOULD INVADE AND DEGRADE TO IFR AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS N. A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SHWRS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. THEREAFTER...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
PATCHY FOG AFTER 09Z. NE WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO SE.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON ARRIVAL TIME OF STRATUS AND CIG CHANGES.

TUE THRU 18Z: IFR STRATUS/PATCHY MVFR FOG LIFTS TO MVFR BY 15Z. SE
WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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