Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 041016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
516 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCES AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...WE CONTINUE THE SPLIT FLOW SCENARIO WHILE WE ARE
BETWEEN JET STREAMS. A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES A LITTLE CLOSER AS A PERTURBATION A
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. A MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO/KANSAS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. INSTABILITY COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK. BULK
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT MAYBE 20-30 KTS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR WILL
BE ENHANCED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CWA. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SKY COVER AS MODELS INDICATE AN
EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BECAUSE OF THIS AND HAVE
SIDED TOWARD COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. WE MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME BREAKING 60 IN SOME PLACES. I DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF THE HI RES NMM AND THE RAP FOR HIGHS...AS THESE MODELS HAVE DONE
QUITE WELL LATELY. WENT WITH THE FAIRLY DEPENDABLE SUPERBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT. WE COULD ALSO GET SOME DECENT GUSTS TODAY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT TIGHT. I
WENT WITH CONSRAW WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY...WHICH IS GREATER THAN THE
STANDARD WIND GUST ALGORITHM.

DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WAS BASED ON ENSEMBLE DATA AS
WELL AS SUPERBLEND TRENDS. CONFIDENCE HAS NOT BEEN HIGH FOR CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION FOR TODAY AND A BIT OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH TONIGHT...WE
WILL HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION AT ALMOST ANY POINT DURING
THE SHORT TERM. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN THE ROCKIES AND A WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER WAVE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS AND
STARTS TO OPEN. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE IS NEAREST TO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO OVER 1500 J/KG AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.

THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THE
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN BEFORE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE FIRST WAVE FROM THIS
WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE CONTINUES
TO BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WARM. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL AROUND OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

AS A FRONT STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...A STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND SOCK US IN WITH SKY COVER. THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. VISIBILITY COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IN A THUNDERSTORM...BUT SINCE PREDICTABILITY IS
SO LOW...ANYTHING SPECIFIC HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS
FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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