Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 310518
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE INCREASING AS DIABATIC HEATING ALSO CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
GIVEN ALL THIS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
00Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE...WIND AND DEW POINT
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

A SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE SFC HIGH SLIDING FURTHER TO
THE EAST. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE EXPECTED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE OVERALL-MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD LOOKING RELATIVELY
QUIET/DRY...ITS LITTLE SECRET THAT THE MAJORITY OF ATTENTION IS
FOCUSED ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS SPRING. PER THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...IT`S THE FIRST
SLIGHT RISK OF THE SEASON FOR OFFICIALLY AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA...AND AT THE LOCAL LEVEL THIS FORECASTER SEES NO REASON
TO DISAGREE. WILL GO INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL BELOW...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW TORNADO RISK...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING HAIL TO PING PONG BALLS OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS
OF GENERALLY 60-70 MPH...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN FORM INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN AN
"EXACT CORRIDOR"...DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER OF LATE THERE COULD
ALSO BE A SWATH OF 1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT COULD PROMOTE SOME
MAINLY MINOR/SHORT TERM FLOODING ISSUES.

BEFORE GETTING INTO THE DETAILS A TOUCH MORE...HERE IS A QUICK
OVERVIEW OF A FEW OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS:

TEMPERATURES: CERTAINLY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS
LOOKING TO MAINTAIN AN ABOVE NORMAL REGIME. THE WARMEST DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES) LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AWAY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NEXT SUNDAY-MONDAY. IN BETWEEN...A
BRIEF/MODEST COOL-DOWN OCCURS DURING THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY
TIME...WITH FRIDAY STILL THE FAIRLY-CLEAR CANDIDATE FOR THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY ONLY AIMED INTO THE
MID-UPPER 50S.

FIRE WEATHER: ALTHOUGH ITS TOO SOON TO HIGHLIGHT ANY DAYS OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN...THE ENTIRE THURSDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME COULD
FEATURE AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECOND PART OF THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOW GETTING INTO SOME ABBREVIATED DETAILS IN MAINLY 12-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...

TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
RETURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...VARIOUS MODELS
(INCLUDING HIGHER RES 4KM WRF-NMM) ARE IN PRETTY UNANIMOUS
AGREEMENT THAT LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE SHOULD IN THEORY KEEP THE NIGHT DRY AND
STORM-FREE...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS THINKING. THE MOST NOTICEABLE
FEATURE OF THE NIGHT WILL BE STEADY AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OF
GENERALLY 10-20 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS UP IN THE LOW
50S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS ONLY
MODEST WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST PASSING MAINLY
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S...DECENT DAYTIME HEATING TO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVADING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP ROBUST CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TYPICAL 4PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. IF ANYTHING...LATEST RUNS
HAVE SLOWED THE COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY...AND THUS ACCORDINGLY HAVE
MADE SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST NAM...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY A TOUCH
OVERDONE ON DEWPOINTS...CALLS FOR MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LOOKING FAIRLY
MODEST AT 30-35KT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES (ESPECIALLY EARLY ON) THAT GRADUALLY BUILD
UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR CLUSTERS. GIVEN WE ARE STILL 48
HOURS AWAY FROM THE "ZERO HOUR" PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL
TIME FOR DETAILS TO CHANGE...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...SOME (BUT
PROBABLY NOT ALL) PLACES WILL SEE SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL OF
1-2+ INCHES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BE LONG ENDED
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES IN PLACE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IS IN STORE. ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS ARE TRENDING DRY...HAVE HELD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR NOW MAINLY PER THE ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH COULD (KEY
WORD COULD) MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTUALLY COMES THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT: KEPT THESE 48 HOURS DRY EXCEPT FOR
A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY
DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY DAYTIME: REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS DAY 6-7 RANGE...AS THE WARM-UP
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AND WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: FUEL SOURCES ARE VERY DRY DUE TO OUR CONTINUED
LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AS CAN BE SEEN BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
30S. RH VALUES WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S TO EVEN LOWER 80S RESULTING
IN RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND A BIT LIGHTER THAN TODAY POSSIBLY JUST LOW ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE NEED OF ANY KIND OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE WIND SPEEDS AND MOST
AREAS WILL BE AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FOR FIRE DANGER WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY BRIEFLY REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BEYOND TUESDAY: THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNS THAT AT LEAST A FEW
AFTERNOONS BETWEEN THURSDAY-MONDAY COULD FEATURE AT LEAST NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS...AND MAYBE 1 OR 2 CRITICAL
EVENTS LURKING IN THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST FOR NOW NONE
OF THESE AFTERNOONS YET FEATURE OBVIOUS/"SLAM DUNK" FIRE WEATHER
SETUPS. GIVEN THAT ALL OF THESE POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF CONCERN
ARE AT LEAST 72 HOURS AWAY AND YET CARRY PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING ANY SPECIFIC
DAYS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ON ONE
LAST NOTE...OBVIOUSLY ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN THAT FALLS WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISH FIRE DANGER
FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT KEEP IN MIND IT`S GOING TO TAKE MORE THAN 1
DECENT RAIN EVENT TO TRULY START ENDING OUR SPRING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT SEASON.

CLOSING WITH A QUICK REVIEW OF OUR LOCAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS:
"CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER IN OUR CWA IS DEFINED AS THE 3+ HOUR OVERLAP
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) OF 20 PERCENT-OR-LOWER AND SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS OF 20+ MPH/25+ MPH. "NEAR-CRITICAL" IS DEFINED AS THE
OVERLAP OF 25 PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTS OF 15+
MPH/20+ MPH (IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY VEGETATION OF COURSE).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/WESELY


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