Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 161048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO FOR A WHILE BUT THEN THERE COULD BE A
BREAK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



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