Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 020618
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
118 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...JUST NORTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE. THINK THAT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
INSTABILITY WANES...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK THEIR WAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND GET ENHANCED BY THE LLJ...SO KEPT SMALL
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. OTHER THAN TWEAKING THE NEAR TERM...NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NECESSARY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS ALONG THE USA-CAN BORDER.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF HEADING INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES HAS
LEFT ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. MODEST SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SW USA. VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE PLAINS THRU TOMORROW.
HOWEVER ...THE NEXT DECENT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING INTO SW
CANADA. THIS TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL MOVE INLAND
TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND BE A PLAYER IN OUR WX SUN. 500 MB
HEIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS MIGRATED INTO THE FCST AREA. A
SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRES WAS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND THE
HIGH WILL HEAD E AND MERGE WITH A LARGER HIGH OVER THE MS VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE ERN USA TOMORROW...WITH THE NEXT PAC
FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN TROF/ ADVANCING THRU THE
NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LEE-SIDE TROF WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUBSIDENCE HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROF. MOST THE 10 WRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM NCAR DO NOT
INITIATE TSTMS OVER THE FCST AREA. SO POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT THOUGH AND THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/EC/GEM ALL
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF.

TONIGHT: FORCING IS FAIRLY SUBTLE/WEAK. MODELS CONT TO OUTPUT
SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. EXPECT SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OUT TO THE
W...SOME WHICH COULD MEANDER E.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF /BEST SEEN AT 700 MB/ IS FCST TO MOVE THRU
AND THIS COMBINED WITH A 40 KT LOW-LVL JET COULD ALSO INITIATE NEW
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL QPF SPAGHETTI
PLOTS SUGGEST LIMITED COVERAGE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS IS IN PLACE.

SAT: ANY OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING E OF HWY 281...OTHERWISE DRY...CLEARING AND VERY WARM.
80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. EVEN SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT JUST START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE
FRONT REMAINS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...A FEW
SHORT WAVES PUSH INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT STILL JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
BY TUESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND
OPENING INTO A WAVE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FURTHER WEST AS THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE
MUCAPE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO OVER 1500 J/KG. MAYBE A STORM COULD
BECOME STRONG.

THURSDAY THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE WAVE. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS IN BECAUSE
EVEN WITH THE WEAKER WAVE...THE ECMWF HAS AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS HAS ALREADY STARTED...SO THE START TIME OF THE WIND SHEAR WAS
BACKED UP TO THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT
MORE WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WIND SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT WIND SHEAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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