Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 032045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED BY AROUND 410 PM...STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CHALLENGES IN THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIODS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERITY OR LACK THEREOF. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WET PATTERN OVERALL WITH QPF GENERATED
ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA DURING EACH PERIOD. THUS
LEAVING ZERO DRY PERIODS IN THE LONG TERM...EVEN THOUGH SUCH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVERY DAY IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED.

AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM....NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW IS REALIZED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY BOTH A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN JET STREAM...WHILE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
GULF.

THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STEADILY CREEPS TOWARD THE
REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH HELPS LIFT THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OF THE LONG TERM...THIS TUESDAY
MORNING PERIOD "SHOULD" BE THE DRIEST OF THE BUNCH...ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN. BY AFTERNOON...WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH LITTLE
INSTABILITY EXITS FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IS NOW NEARLY ON TOP OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THUS MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS MUCH HIGHER BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
1400 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA. INCREASED BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45 KTS ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 0 TO 6 KM LAYER...WHILE
30 TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 0 TO 1 KM LAYER...PER THE GFS
SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE THE MAGNITUDE
AS THE GFS...RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS DEFINITELY THE
TIMEFRAME TO WATCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE DOOR TO THE GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS WIDE OPEN. ALTHOUGH THE WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRUDGE NORTH OF THE PLAINS...THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT SYSTEM...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY SLIDES
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SEEM TO DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...STORMS COULD CERTAINLY FIRE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT LEAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY...WHICH COULD DRY OUT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING QPF AS WARM AIR
OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH KEEP IN MIND
THIS IS LOOKING AT DAY 7 AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN WIND TRENDS...INCLUDING
THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT/DIRECTIONAL SHIFT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL MVFR CEILING DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND WITH WHAT TIME FRAME(S) CARRIES THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STARTING WITH
THESE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH A GENERALLY WESTERLY BREEZE LARGELY UNDER 12KT.
STARTING AT 22Z AND LASTING THROUGH 06Z...HAVE INTRODUCED A
GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION AS THIS SEEMS TO BE
THE MAIN 8-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE STORMS NEAR THE
TAF SITES (LATER UPDATES CAN "UPGRADE" TO TEMPO GROUPS AS
NECESSARY). SHOULD ANY STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT KGRI/KEAR...A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
06Z-13Z TIME FRAME...BUT FROM 13Z ONWARD HAVE INTRODUCED AN MVFR
CEILING ALONG WITH A GENERIC VICINITY SHOWERS (VCSH) MENTION.
RE-VISITING SURFACE WIND TRENDS...ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST
COMPONENT SETTLES IN WITH GUST POTENTIAL AT LEAST 15-20KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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