Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 150541
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE FORECAST IS DRY THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IN BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAKER
TROUGH LIFTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN BETWEEN
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST.

THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
A DRY AIRMASS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RESULTED IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA UNTIL 8 PM.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WITH
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION CLOSING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF AND MEANDERING SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL LIFT OUT AND COULD PRODUCE PCPN EAST OF OUR AREA.
SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL LOOKING DRY THRU THE DAY WITH CHCS FOR PCPN
INCREASING HEADING INTO WED NIGHT. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERALL AND WINDS AGAIN WILL
BE STEADY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE/DPS
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

NOT MUCH TIME TODAY TO DIVE INTO DETAILS...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY A
GOOD THING CONSIDERING THAT ESPECIALLY THE DAY 2-4 TIME FRAME
CARRIES A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION TRENDS OF A
SLOW-MOVING (ALMOST STATIONARY FOR A TIME) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE PRIMARY MODELS ARE LIKELY "RIGHT ON
TRACK" YET WITH HOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EVOLVE...IT`S WORTH
NOTING THAT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER
NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION THAN THE NOTICEABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OVERALL OUTLIER.

THE BASICS OF PRECIP CHANCES: WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND/OR AND AT LEAST LIMITED/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WESTERN
ZONES...AND THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING CWA-WIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE A DRY FORECAST FINALLY RETURNS BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SEPARATE ROUNDS OF RAIN AT
SOME POINT BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT OBVIOUSLY WON/T BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND THERE ARE NO DAYS/NIGHTS THAT ONE
CAN TRULY CALL A "WASHOUT" YET. DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
THAT STILL REMAIN...POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT NO MORE THAN 50
PERCENT FOR NOW DURING MOST PERIODS...WITH A FEW LIMITED AREAS OF
"LIKELY" 60 PERCENT POPS NOTED DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. PLEASE BARE WITH US AS PLENTY OF ADJUSTMENTS/FINE
TUNING WILL BE TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE
EVENTUALLY WILL GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE AND WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE
THESE MYRIAD POPS AS TIME GOES BY. IN GENERAL...THE PREFERRED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION CUTS OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME...PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE PATH OF VARIOUS
SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM IT. THEN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY THE MAIN MID LEVEL
ENERGY BEGINS TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
GOING MUCH LATER IN TIME THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EVEN THE
ECMWF FINALLY ARGUES FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
HAS HIGH TEMPS AIMED INTO THE 60S ON EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS...WHICH
IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH SEASONAL NORMS. THAT BEING SAID...ANY DAYS
THAT END UP FEATURING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS COULD EASILY BE
STUCK IN THE 50S WHILE ANY PROLONGED BREAKS OF SUN COULD EASILY
BOOST SOME PLACES INTO THE 70S. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...SUB-
FREEZING READINGS DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...WITH
LOWS ON MOST NIGHTS AIMED INTO THE UPPER 30S-UPPER 40S RANGE.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS/SEVERE STORMS: DESPITE THE VARIOUS CHANCES FOR
STORMS BETWEEN WED EVENING AND SATURDAY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY IS
NOT NON-EXISTENT EITHER...AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
MIGRATING THROUGH THE REGION ONE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
"SURPRISE" STRONG STORM OR TWO. IN FACT...THE VERY FIRST CHANCE
FOR A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM THREAT MAY COME RIGHT AWAY WEDNESDAY
EVENING (MAINLY BETWEEN 7PM-MIDNIGHT) WITHIN THE FAR WESTERN
CWA...AS POTENTIAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS FIRE UP OVER
NORTHWEST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST NEB AND MIGRATE TOWARD OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK NOW
BARELY BRUSHES THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WITH A MARGINAL
RISK...AND THIS DOES BEAR SOME WATCHING DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
EASTWARD POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTION CAN HOLD TOGETHER.

BRIEFLY LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND INTO THE SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
TIME FRAME: IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME
SHOULD BE DRY AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...BUT HAVE ALLOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
THE TUESDAY DAYTIME FORECAST FOR NOW PER THE GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF IS NOT THE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY AS
WE GET FURTHER INTO TODAY/THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...KEPT THINGS
VFR. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SLIDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...BUT LOOKING AT OBS UPSTREAMS CEILINGS ARE
ABOVE 3K FT. LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD /THIS EVENING/...THERE LOOKS
TO BE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS...AND INSERTED A SCT
MENTION FOR NOW AND WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODEL RUNS TREND. WITH
THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
VERY END OR JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...KEPT MENTION OUT BUT ONE
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 12Z TAF FORECAST. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP


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