Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240538
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NE ARE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...OF WHICH A FEW COULD MIGRATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS WE START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FLOW
RETURN...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT
WITH INCREASING LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE HELD OFF A BIT
LONGER ON MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE GIVEN DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN.
AREA STARTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG UPPER ENERGY TOWARD DAWN
AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN DEVELOPING GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE A STRONGER STORM IS
POSSIBLE...THESE STORMS GENERALLY SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MANY ISSUES
AND COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPOTTY.

LATER IN THE DAY...MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION
IN THE KANSAS REGION BY EVENING. SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL AS TO JUST
HOW MUCH THE LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW TRIES TO INTENSIFY. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT
TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION AS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT AREA IS THE FAVORED REGION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE JEWELL...MITCHELL AND
OSBORNE COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THAT AREA IF ANYWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 2000 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN
1500 J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
RAIN AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER THRU THE NIGHT
THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ATTM BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY TSTM CHCS INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY



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