Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 242008
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL SWRLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SET UP BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE TO OUR W/SW
AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF
INTEREST SLIDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER WRN KS...WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E/SE THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL KS. WE ARE SITTING NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH S/SERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS LIFT VIA THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
DRYLINE OVER THE WRN SRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONT OVER KS
PROVIDING ADDED FOCUS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES JUST S OF THE CWA WHERE
CLOUD COVER HASNT BEEN AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. SHORT TERM/HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE I70 AREA AS A STARTING
POINT...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES E/NE. HAIL/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT ANYTIME THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
AIDING IN MORE SERLY WINDS THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...AND WILL KEEP ALL THOSE MENTIONS GOING IN THE HWO.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT MAIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. AS THIS AND
THE SFC LOW PUSH EAST...WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE
N/NERLY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LOW POPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
DRY. WINDS REMAIN E/NERLY...AND CLOUD COVER ESP ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO HIGHS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS
EXPECTED ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THEN EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA WILL PROMOTE
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT THERMAL ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND DURING THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REPLACED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE LONG- TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AT BOTH TERMINAL
SITES...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE THEM
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD IS LOW...KEPT THE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOING. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE N/NWRLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. BACKED OFF TIMING OF VCTS
MENTION A BIT...BUT MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN S/SE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP



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