Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



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