Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051752
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ENOUGH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT THE PREVIOUSLY
HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...ADDED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE TORNADOES TO THE HWO
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 0-1KM LOW
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SEEM LIKELY TO REACH 20-30KTS AND 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES COULD BE OVER 300 M2/S2 BY 7 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR FELT AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF
POSSIBLE TORNADOES WAS WARRANTED IN THE HWO. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE WEDNESDAY STORMS WILL STILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A
QUESTION MARK IF CLOUDS PERSIST TOO LONG INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

LATEST RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT DRIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH
VISIBILITY AROUND A HALF MILE OR LESS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN ORD EARLY
THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NEBRASKA BEFORE
IT WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. EXPECT THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE
MORNING. BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP. THE GREATEST CHANCE MID DAY WILL BE IN THE WEST THEN AS
THE WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND BY MORNING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG SO NOT
EXPECTING THERE TO BE SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AN INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WAS USED AS THERE WAS
GENERALLY GOOD CONTINUITY OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR WEDNESDAY...A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR AS A LEAD NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LEFTOVER SKY
COVER WILL THROW A KINK INTO THE PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS WE COULD HAVE MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH I WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT IS LOW. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER SHOT
AT SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH...WITH THE AXIS CROSSING SATURDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY. THIS
SCENARIO COULD SET US UP FOR ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO. BULK
SHEAR LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 40 TO 60 KTS
RANGE. INSTABILITY IS A BIT OF A QUESTION...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS
IT COULD BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...BUT WITH THAT KIND OF
SHEAR...IT IS ENOUGH FOR ME TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
EVEN THEN WE SHOULD STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FILL IN AFTER DARK THIS
EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. COULD VERY WELL SEE IFR OR LIFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW AS THE THUNDER POSSIBILITY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. WE
MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



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