Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 232057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS RAINFALL/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOLID SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOW/MID
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOUT SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 60S WHERE
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. SIMILAR TO RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR DEWPOINTS...AND THE DRIER AIR
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FORECAST WHERE SUN IS
MOST PREVALENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST
WHEN THE LOW CLOSES THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER EAST
SOLUTION...THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SOONER...BUT THE
FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE EARLY IN THE
EVENING IS STILL AROUND 200 J/KG BUT DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 1500
J/KG LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN
AROUND TO MEASURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN
CONUS STARTS TO SEND SOME ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...SINCE THE WAVE LINGERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH
ALSO HAVE A SECONDARY LOW THAT DIVES SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TUESDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WOULD
GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER BEING A LITTLE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BRING A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WILL IMPACT AVIATION SERVICES FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS...IF NOT IFR CEILINGS FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CHURN UP SOME SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF AT LEAST STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE UP AND DOWN DURING THAT TIME...AND CURRENT
VSBY FORECAST OF 2-3 MILES IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BUT THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY VARIATIONS AT TIMES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.