Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 241746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOCUS IS ON TSTMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY

THE PATTERN ALOFT PLACED AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS DRAWING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME DPS IN THE 50S
MIGRATING NORTH FM CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO OUR CWA IN WAA AHEAD
OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LIFT WAS ALSO ENHANCED BY A 40KT LLVL JET WHICH IS PROGGED TO
ORIENT MORE NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND EXPECT LOOK
FOR ONGOING TO CONVECTION TO SHIFT ACROSS OUR CWA THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT FM THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE SFC
FEATURES COMPARED TO 24HR AGO...WITH SFC LOW CENTERS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ALONG I70 IN
KS TOWARD EVENING AND LIFT NORTH NEAR THE NEB/KS STATELINE WITH
THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRY LINE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO
WESTERN NEB. TIMING OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF TSTMS FAVORS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC KANSAS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION TODAY AND CLOUD COVER IS
LOOKING RATHER WIDESPREAD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO SEE SOME BREAKS.

REGARDING AFTN TEMPS...HAVE KEPT READINGS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH QUICKER AND CLOUDS
BREAK EARLIER...OUR SOUTHERN ZONES MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PCPN FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. PCPN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALOFT: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY SPLIT FLOW THRU THU...WITH A TENDENCY
FOR CUT-OFF LOWS TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS.
THE FCST AREA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY ANY STRONG QG
FORCING OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WHEN THE TAIL OF A NRN STREAM TROF MAY BREAK
OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND HEAD S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
FCST TO BE OVER THE SE USA. FOR NOW ONLY THE 12Z/00Z GEM AND THE 12Z
EC SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER FCSTRS
INDICATE VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGESTED THIS AS WELL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. BY THU THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR KANSAS CITY 12Z/SAT AND WILL CONT
MOVING E AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS INFLUENCE THRU MON. A WEAK
PACIFIC-ORIGIN COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU MON NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE-WED AND SLIDING E OF THE REGION THU.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL /60S DAYS AND 40S NIGHTS/ THRU MON THEN A
TURNING WARMER TUE-THU. NO DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FORESEEN.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

SAT: THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMMAHEAD/DEF ZONE MAY
LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE
DECREASING CLOUDS. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY S AND W OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

STRATUS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD N OF THE DEPARTING LOW...FROM THE OH
VALLEY BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...AND IT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED BY ON-
GOING PRECIP DOWNSTREAM SAT. WHAT CLEARING DOES OCCUR SAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. INCREASINGLY DEEP E FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AND
ADVECT THIS STRATUS BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.

SUN: CLOUDY AND COOL...ESPECIALLY W OF HWY 281. SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE E
PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLEARING FROM THE E NOT OCCURRING UNTIL SUN EVE.

FOG: HAVE TO WONDER IF IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HRS OF SUN AND MON EITHER DUE TO STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OR
RADIATING ON THE FRINGES OF THE STRATUS.

E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WELL TO THE W SAT-MON.
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRYING TO BRING UPSLOPE PRECIP TOO FAR E.
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHWRS W OF HWY 183 SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT
EVEN THIS IS DOUBTFUL. CHANCE FOR SHWRS WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MON: WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING FOG/STRATUS...THEN
IMPROVEMENT.

TUE-THU: BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY NICER EACH DAY. THU EASILY THE
NICEST DAY OF THIS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER AT BOTH TERMINAL
SITES...BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT HAVE THEM
GOING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECAST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD IS LOW...KEPT THE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS GOING. SRLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE N/NWRLY WINDS BUILD IN AS THE SFC
LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. BACKED OFF TIMING OF VCTS
MENTION A BIT...BUT MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN S/SE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP



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