Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160542
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS ARE TURNING MORE COMPLICATED WITH REGARDS IN
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN
UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWING MOISTURE/HIGHER DPS NORTH FM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY BUT WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKEN/LOWER HEADING INTO THE EVENING OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND MEANDER SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAA/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND LASTING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. TONIGHT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE TO OUR WEST ALONG A N/S ORIENTED SFC TROUGH/BOUNDARY ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION
OR AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS NORTH OF THE SFC LOW. THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE OVERALL SHEAR IS GENERALLY UNDER 30KTS.
THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL CATEGORY FARTHER
WEST OUT OF CWA WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS SFC
TROUGH WITH CHCS NOT LOOKING AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT OR MORE SO TOWARD THURSDAY FOR OUR AREA.

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE ROCKIES. INSTABILITY AGAIN
RAMPS UP DURING THE DAY FM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH THRU CENTRAL
KS INTO SOUTHERN NEB AS BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT
HARD TO SAY HOW THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY UNFOLD WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING CONVECTION...CLOUD COVER AND A SLOWING TREND OF UPPER LOW
MIGRATION WHICH IMPACTS BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DESPITE THE SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE SPC MARGINAL RISK LINE FOR DAY 2.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

OVERALL A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG
TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME...GIVEN NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES...BEFORE BECOMING CUT
OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CIRCULATION THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN NO CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
JET...CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN. AS SUCH...GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW RIGHT INTO THE HEART
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL THREE POPULAR MODELS...ECMWF...NAM AND
GFS ALL INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION.

LOOKING INTO MORE DETAIL ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE REGION...PROVIDING LIFT
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS. ONE KEY
THING TO NOTE...THE GFS SEEMS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THIS TIME
FRAME THAN THE ECMWF. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FURTHER
NORTH...AND DRYLINE IS MIXED FURTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...THAN EXPECTED BY THE ECMWF. AS SUCH...INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER IN THE GFS SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 KG RANGE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE MAIN
MOISTURE FIELD...AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY SLIDES
NORTHWARD...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD HAVE SHOT AT SOME
SEVERE STORMS AS WELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE WET AS WELL...AND COULD PROVE TO BE
INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD.
AGAIN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH THE GFS SOLUTION MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS
SOLUTION SEEMS TO SHOVE A CLEAR DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF A DEFINED COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF REMAINS WETTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OF THE TWO DAYS...FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT COULD DEVELOP.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES TRENDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BUT WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

BY SUNDAY....THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO ABSORB BACK INTO THE MAIN
FLOW...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT NEARLY WHATS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING ON SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
SLIDE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS NOW
MIGRATED TO THE HUDSON BAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN
ON AND OFF AGAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THESE DISTURBANCES PASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

BOTTOM LINE...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND TIME
FRAME. SOME FOLKS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OR LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND...THIS WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF
CONVECTION. WHICH MEANS SOME FOLKS WILL GET PRECIPITATION...AND
OTHERS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB


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