Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 301949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND RAIN
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OPTING TO GO WITH A LOW END
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS THROUGH FRONTOGENESIS TO POSSIBLY KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND THOSE THAT CATCH A SHOWER REALLY WILL NOT SEE
VERY MUCH IN THEIR RAIN GAUGE. THE BEST CHANCE AT CATCHING A SHOWER
TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND.

FRIDAY...THE SFC TROUGH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA
WHILE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SLIDES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HEART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND WITH BOTH A SFC
FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE INCREASING INSTABILITY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND EXPECT RAIN WILL BE RATHER HIT AND MISS WITH
THOSE THAT DO SEE RAIN LIKELY ONLY SEEING LIGHT AMOUNTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW A COOLER DAY...BUT AM STILL CALLING FOR HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S...WHICH BY MOST STANDARDS IS PRETTY NICE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER WAVE ON FRIDAY CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA...THEN TO GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END DURING THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A VERY WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY. WITH
SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM.

ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND IS
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH...FINALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
MONDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WAVE STARTS TO OPEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE A FEW UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WAVES
COMING THROUGH AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FAIRLY
HIGH FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY ON THURSDAY THE
WAVE LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE
WIND AT THE SFC WILL BE LIGHT WHILE A FEW HUNDRED FEET UP THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER 35KTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A RAIN SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY


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