Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 221800
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

REDUCED SKY COVER A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS
LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ALOFT: THE FLOW REMAINS SPLIT FLOW OVER N AMERICA WITH A TROF
OVER THE E AND A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE W. A CUT-OFF LOW
WAS UNDERNEATH OVER SRN CA WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE USA.
THE FCST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM THRU TONIGHT
WITH QUIET NW FLOW.

SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU LAST EVE WILL BECOME
STATIONARY...BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES AND THEN EASTWARD FROM
THE TX-OK BORDER E INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. CNTRL CANADA HIGH
PRES WAS EXTENDING S INTO THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THIS HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT E OF THE REGION THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: P-M/SUNNY. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME PATCHES
OF MID-LVL ALTOCU WILL DRIFT THRU AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE NAM NEST. CHOP ABOUT 12F OFF
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.

TONIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. M/CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS THIS
MORNING WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FAIRLY LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THAT SAID...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
PRECIPITATION OVER THAT TIME PERIOD WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING DOMINANT BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADVECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND AND AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY.

AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND WITH A
SURFACE FRONT SITTING TO OUR SOUTH...COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE FIRST LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRAVERSES THE REGION. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARDS THE PLAINS.

WHILE THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DO THINK MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMING THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO
TOWARDS THE NE/KS STATE LINES. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FRIDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED. WHILE SUPERCELLS COULD
BE FAVORED ACROSS OUR SOUTH GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES
...THINK MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE MUCH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
INTO NEBRASKA...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THEN AS WE WORK INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THAT
SAID...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
LOW...BUT EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL ACROSS
THE REGION...SO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THAN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE TOWARD LATE
MORNING THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
RISK OF SOME SPRINKLES...BUT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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