Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 011130
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG WITH IT.
THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO 3000 TO 4000 J/KG MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE EAST. EXPECT HAIL AND WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THU THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THERE COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH THE WARM START
TO THE MORNING AND SOUTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO SOAR
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG AND
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS...SO DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGHER. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO THE MID 30S TO MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A LULL BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AND JET INDUCED
SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH
BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. NOTHING TOO MAJOR HERE...AND COULD SEE
A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TAKE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD HAVE
GENERALLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER. OVERALL TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGING IN THE EAST...LEAVING US WITHIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE CWA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS THE ONLY TIME WE HAVE DECENT ENOUGH CAPE FOR
EVEN ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE MONDAY...AND CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY POTENTIALLY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WENT CLOSER
TO SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ABOUT THE TIME THE SUN COMES UP THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE FRONT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB


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