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000
FXUS63 KGID 100544
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1144 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE BACK INTO THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
GRADUALLY FALLING CEILING HEIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS THINKING OVER REGARDING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THEN CONTINUED
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RISK OF SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
NIGHT.

AT 22Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED ONE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DEPART EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE ANOTHER LOW WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. IN BETWEEN...RIDGING CONTINUED BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...22Z OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1032MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN
CANADA...WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CONTINUED GUSTING TO BETWEEN
20-30 MPH OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EARLIER TODAY
DRIFTING SNOW WAS REPORTED TO BE A PROBLEM IN RURAL PORTIONS OF
YORK AND POLK COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DROP OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN FAR EASTERN AREAS DROPPING TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BY 7 OR
8 PM.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE CWA TONIGHT...AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO
MOVE OUT/DISSIPATE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS IN MOST AREAS SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN 2-7 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...WITH A FEW AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 POSSIBLY DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH FOG
IS SOMETIMES A CONCERN IN THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS...AGREE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF RECENT
SNOW MELT SHOULD HELP KEEP THIS AT BAY.

ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY IN MOST AREAS...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS STILL LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AS EVIDENCED BY MODEST
LIFT ON THE 280/285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. HOWEVER...AM REALLY NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A SOLID OVERCAST IN MOST AREAS. KEPT HIGHS
TOMORROW SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S
EAST TO THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN...THE COLD
START AND LACK OF MIXING WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN THESE CONTINUED COLD READINGS...ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BIG MYSTERY REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP. THE LOWEST 0.5 KM CONTINUES TO
SATURATE IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME WEAK LIFT AND TURBULENT MIXING AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE SKIRTS INTO THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN...SHOULD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP...LOOKS TO CENTER ON 03Z-09Z. GIVEN CONTINUED QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SUPPORTING A LEGITIMATE DRIZZLE
THREAT...AND FOR CONSISTENCY WITH MOST NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
AGAIN OPTED TO LEAVE THIS SCENARIO OUT OF THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
-FZDZ WAS TO DEVELOP...THE IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE MINIMAL. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WED
NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT BREEZES SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM
GETTING TOO WIDESPREAD AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG AS
WELL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE
THAT IS WITH THIS WAVE IS VERY SHALLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HAS THE
LOOK OF DRIZZLE. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND THE MOISTURE IS
SHALLOW AND NOT OVERLY STRONG. AT BEST IT APPEARS TO BE SOME VERY
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF FLURRIES
VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE VERY PATCHY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER THE
WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS...SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT
ON THE AREA OTHER THAN TO BRING IN A FEW CLOUDS. THE SURFACE
FEATURES WILL HAVE A STRONGER IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY THE FIRST UPPER WAVE
SLIDES THROUGH AND BRINGS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE AREA.
MODELS ALL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...BUT EACH HAVE A BIT OF A
TIMING DIFFERENCE. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING THEN
THE TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY COOL OFF DURING THE DAY...BUT AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COOL OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN
COOL ON SUNDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WITH A LITTLE
WARM ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP A BIT. THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$