Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 172159
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
359 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE COMPLICATED EARLY SPRING STORM OVER THE REGION...WILL LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE LOW CENTER
ROUGHLY OVER WOLF CREEK PASS AT 3 PM MDT. OUR AREA HAS MAINLY BEEN
IMPACTED BY MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW. ONE ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIPITATION KEPT STEADY SNOW OVER
GRAND JUNCTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA HAS NOW ROTATED
TO THE WEST AND NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST UT...AND NORTHWEST
CO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
OUR SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK WAVE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS TRAILING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH WILL ACT AS THE
KICKER FOR THE SLOW-MOVING COLORADO LOW. MODELS INDICATE OUR AREA
MAY SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER
SPOKE ROTATES THROUGH AND ENHANCES SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OROGRAPHICS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THESE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THINGS PICK UP
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A LONGER LULL THERE AS LESS MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE. SO OTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNCHANGED.

ALSO OF CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE WESTERN CO VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
CORTEZ TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO UPGRADED THE WATCH THERE TO
A FREEZE WARNING. THEN GRAND JUNCTION AND NUCLA STAYED IN THE
LOWER TO MID THIRTIES ALL DAY TODAY. SO WITH ANY NIGHTTIME
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE...TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE CO ZONES 6 AND 20
WERE INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
SHOW THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT PERSIST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UNSETTLED NW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ONE WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TO START THE WEEK WITH A BIT OF AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO MOISTEN THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND
DETAILS OF THE TROUGH GROW AFTER WED BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FROM THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...AND THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

A SLOW MOVING WINTER-LIKE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...AIRPORTS WILL SEE PERIODS MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TURBULENCE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



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