Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 151142
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

IMPRESSIVELY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY TO
THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY AMPLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS FOR
A FEW DAYS NOW AND WEBCAMS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING SLC OFFICE CONFIRM
THAT SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. HARD TO IGNORE SIGNALS FOR SNOWFALL NOW
THAT THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SNOW IN THIS
AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EASTERN UINTAS. ELSEWHERE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND
TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO THIS AIRMASS BEING RELATIVELY DRY. THE NEXT
BEST PLACE FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...THOUGH NO HILIGHT IS OUT FOR THIS AREA AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TO BE EXACT. A HARD FREEZE IS
VERY LIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER.
-10C TEMPS AT 700 MB ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION AND WHEN IT
GETS KICKED DOWNSTREAM. DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE DETAILS AND IT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE WHETHER ANY SPOTS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 06Z NAM
MODEL...AN INVERTED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN UTAH AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED LOW CORE WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
THE THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW BECOMES LOW. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE TOWARD THE COLORADO SPINE AND WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THIS WOULD BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN MOST
MOUNTAIN SPOTS ABOVE FREEZING... SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIGHT AND
FOLLOWED BY MELTING.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE KICKING CLOSED LOW DOWNSTREAM ON
SATURDAY...BUT STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THIS KICKER MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE COLORADO
SPINE...BUT DRY OVER THE ERN UTAH AND THE DESERT VALLEYS OF WRN
COLORADO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NRN AND SRN STREAM MAY WEAKLY CONVERGE
OVER COLORADO...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY FORM FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SCATTERED -SHSN WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED -SHSN
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT BRIEF -SHSN WILL OCCUR.

FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR A LINE SOUTH OF KVEL-
KGUC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ001-006-011.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ022-024-027-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


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