Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 012045
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST...WITH OVER
0.5" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALLOWING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS A TAD DRIER
SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS. SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DURING THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT WITH A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO SEEN IN THE ECMWF...WITH A FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK FORECASTED BY THE GFS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS
THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP EARLY TODAY SO ADJUSTED START TIME FOR VCSH
AND VCTS AT KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH KASE HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPORARILY REDUCED VIS AND LOW CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED AFTER 02Z. THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY...EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO START AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...JAM



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