Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 250127
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
727 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS AS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE SO FAR THIS EVENING. HRRR HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
EAST CENTRAL UTAH AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. ADDITIONAL UPDATES
LIKELY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN AZ BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN
LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT COME THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7
INCH. FLOW SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR
BACK IN MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY
700-600 MB) BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW
PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD
HOWEVER...SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW
8000 FT AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS
PUTTING OUT 6+ INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK
MTNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HELPING
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. STILL SCT -SHRA/-SHSN ISOLATED -TSRA
COULD PRODUCE CIGS BLO 050 AND VSBY BLO 3SM MAINLY AT HIGHER SITES
LIKE KASE AND KTEX THROUGH 03Z. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 09Z. WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN
WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT
DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE


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