Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 010439
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1039 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR CLOUDIER SKIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EVANSTON WY AND SALT LAKE CITY. LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL REACH VERNAL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND THEN STALL OVER NW
OR WEST-CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CONVECTION FIRING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. A LOOK
OUTSIDE AND ON WEB CAMS SHOW THE BULK OF THE RETURNS ARE VIRGA EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE DOUBLED OUR PWAT FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AGAIN SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD BUT INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH STRONG HEATING IN PLACE TO POP
THE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IS
SHOWING A FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE FIRST BATCH OF PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE WEST AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS WARM RIDGE
EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG WITH WEAK QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD ENERGY. HAVE VERY
LITTLE FAITH THE QPF MODELS ARE PRODUCING BEFORE SUNRISE WILL REACH
THE GROUND BUT RATHER EXPECT ACCAS ON TOP OF THE STRONG EML. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE LEAKING INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST CWA TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW AND LOOKS TO HANG ON THE
NORTHERN PLATEAUS BY MID DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA TOMORROW DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE...BUT PROBABLY
FELT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE DOING
GOOD LATELY AND DID LEAN THIS WAY FOR TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FAVORED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
SEVERELY LACKING AND POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AGAIN EXPECT
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN WAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CLOSED AT H7 OVER EASTERN UTAH BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY
THE LATE MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SIGNIFIES THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE HIGH WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SW WY TO SRN NV WILL MOVE INTO NE UT
BEFORE SUNRISE AND NW CO DURING THE DAY WED BEFORE STALLING. THIS
WILL FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NRN CO MOUNTAINS FROM 18Z WED TO 06Z THU. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE HIGH BASED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10-
20 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OF THE SEASON AS FUELS HAVE BEGUN TO
DRY UP WITH THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. POCKET
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEYS...THEN A LONGER PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ207-290.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ207-290.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD
FIRE WEATHER...JAM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.