Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 020202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
802 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
REDUCE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SURFACE OBS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND
AND RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT AND EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS TO
EXPIRE EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

SPRING HAS SPRUNG OVER THE REGION WITH A MIXTURE OF GUSTY
WINDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED LIGHTNING...DUST ON
SNOW...SEASONED WITH SOME FIRE AND FREEZE DANGER.

IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE WEAKER OF TWO TROUGHS AND ITS COOL FRONT
WERE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE STRONGER TROUGH WILL
PASS ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z NAM`S BANDED PRECIPITATION PATTERN SEEMS
TO BE VERIFYING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SW WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ARE BRINGING THE FIRST DUST-ON-SNOW EVENT FOR 2015 UP TO AT
LEAST THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS DUST ON SNOW MAY INCREASE RUNOFF
RATES OF OUR SUB-NORMAL SNOWPACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING
SEASON.

THE SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. WITH ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS. THANKS
TO BOU OFFICE FOR SNOW COORDINATION. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SEE THE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THEN THE COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. 700MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -10C/12F WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL ZONES HAVE
BUDDING AND FLOWERING VEGETATION THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST
DAMAGE. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SLIDES EAST SATURDAY WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING BACK UP BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE QUICKLY JUMPING BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GFS TRYING TO KICK OUT A WEAK WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING A GOOD 24 HOURS SLOWER ON THAT
POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE LOW THAT THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND MIDWEEK TO INCREASE
PRECIP POTENTIAL AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES AS BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KTEX KMTJ KASE AND KEGE
UNTIL 02Z. BRIEF CIGS BLO 030 POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE REACHING 25-40KTS
THROUGH 02Z. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY BEGINNING
AFTER 15Z POTENTIALLY PRODUCING VIS BLO 5SM CIGS BLO 3SM IN
SHSN/SHRA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS ARE TAF SITES... KVEL
KEGE KASE KMTJ. SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 7000 TO 5000 FT ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 290 AND 207 BELOW 8000 FEET AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

A SECOND FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...FAVORING FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207. EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY
TO WINDY DAY WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HAVE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AREA. ZONE 290 TO THE NORTH WILL SEE HUMIDITY
VALUES CLIMB BACK ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THEY
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONE 290 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ006-011-020.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207.

UT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     UTZ022-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...JDC


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