Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 270329
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
929 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NAM HAS JUST COME IN AND IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE LOW THAT IS SHIFTING ONTO
THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. AT 9 PM RADAR RESOLVED A WIDE BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND LA SAL/ABAJO
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11 PM OR SO FOR THESE
AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH SO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SE UTAH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 9PM.

THE 00Z NAM SHOWS SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CO MTNS THIS
EVENING. AFTER A DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE MONDAY MORNING CONVECTIVE
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS PRODUCE SOME FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL EVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONED FROM CHARACTERISTICALLY STRATIFORM THIS
MORNING...TO A MORE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING
TO KGJX RADAR. THE SYSTEM DRIVING SHOWERS WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AT MIDDAY AND WAS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT PUSHING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS UNUSUALLY DEEP WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED
AT 0.59 INCHES IN THE KGJT 12Z/SUN SOUNDING WHICH IS 187 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. INSTABILITY FED BY DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING WITH DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WANING AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DESPITE DECREASING
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS SUFFICIENT
TO CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUD COVER
WILL SERVE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF
FOG IN THE LOWER CENTRAL VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING
DRIVES TEMPERATURES TOWARD DEWPOINT VALUES.

THE WEAKENING LOW WILL STALL OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON MON...THEN
SHIFT INTO CENTRAL OK MON NIGHT AND TUE. AS A RESULT SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...
MOST NUMEROUS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. EASTERN UTAH AND FAR
WESTERN COLORADO WILL SEE DRIER AIR AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF. BY
LATE MON NIGHT ONLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY`S...BUT WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE BETTER HOLD ON TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS WED/WED EVENING. TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED WILL BE
THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE
AND GOOD DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON
TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON WED.

PACIFIC ENERGY WILL THEN FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
FIRST SPLITTING TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON THU. THEN
DETAILS BECOME HARDER TO RESOLVE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRI/SAT. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL BE STRONGER. ALSO SOME LOW PRESSURE ENERGY
SPLITTING OFF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL STRETCH OUT ALONG THE CA
COAST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WE CAN
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THU AND
AGAIN ON FRI...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK ON THU...AND THEN GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE. 04Z-18Z SHOWERS WILL BE SCT IN
COVERAGE...ISOLATED IN EASTERN UTAH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
06Z-15Z FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO INCLUDE KGJT
KRIL KASE KEGE AND ALSO KMTJ KTEX WITH CO MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD. AFT
18Z MONDAY SCT VALLEY SHRA-MTN SHSN EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM
KCAG-KRIL-KDRO PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEST OF THAT LINE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ010-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-018-
     019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE


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