Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 292122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HANGING UP VICINITY OF SRN CO AND UT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIRMASS ADVECTING OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING A LOT OF
SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN DEWPOINTS OWING TO VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. AS EXPECTED...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO TRIGGER CUMULUS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER THOSE
MTNS LATE THIS AFTN DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER UT ON MONDAY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...LOOKING AT WEAK MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AND DIURNAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER MTN RANGES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. IT MAY EVEN REACH UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TOWARD VAIL PASS. HAVE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE 10KFT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015


THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SPINE OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM TROUGH HOWEVER WILL BE FORCING THIS RIDGE
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY
IN PLACE TUESDAY BUT A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE REGIME CHANGE ALOFT.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL AGAIN SIGNAL A RETURN TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY ANOMALY SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS THIS WEEK DO NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
PACIFIC TAP IS MEAGER AND THE TROPICS ARE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS.
PWAT STRUGGLES TO REACH A THIRD OF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH
WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL. WITH THE DRY REGIME IN
PLACE CURRENTLY AND MINIMAL FORCING THROUGH MID WEEK SEE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE SMALL POPS REMAIN ROOTED TO THE TERRAIN FAVORED IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PASSING WAVE AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
WILL LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. AS
A RESULT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE NORTH. LASTLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTERING IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS COULD BRING SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO VALLEYS WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
BLOOM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY MID AFTN AFTER A FEW PLACES LIKE KGJT
AND KASE FLUSH OUT THE UNUSUAL NORTHEAST WIND CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTN AREAS 19-03Z...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STAY GENERALLY EAST OF KTEX.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...BEN


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