Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 242202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
402 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS H5 DIFLUENCE KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN UTAH AS
WELL...BUT DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IN EASTERN
UTAH SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE MAINLY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS SMALL `BREAK` OF DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO
WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT...SO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE RAIN MOVING INTO SW COLORADO BY 10 OR 11 PM TONIGHT AND
NE UTAH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS A LEAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NW CO IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A NERN
PACIFIC JET DIGGING THE MAIN BUT SPLITTING TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED OVER ERN AZ
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW THEN THEN TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP AGAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH. FLOW
SWITCHES FAIRLY QUICKLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS TRY TO BRIEFLY WRAP SOME DRIER AIR BACK IN
MIDDAY SUNDAY ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE (ROUGHLY 700-600 MB)
BUT THEN QUICKLY FILLS IT IN AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE
OVER THE DIVIDE. TEMPS ALOFT NOT OVERLY COLD HOWEVER...SO SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT COULD DRIVE IT BELOW 8000 FT AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
HOWEVER...BUT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS WITH MODELS PUTTING OUT 6+
INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ELK MTNS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON THE COOLER AIR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK
FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
NORMAL. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HELPING
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. STILL SCT -SHRA/-SHSN ISOLATED -TSRA
COULD PRODUCE CIGS BLO 050 AND VSBY BLO 3SM MAINLY AT HIGHER SITES
LIKE KASE AND KTEX THROUGH 03Z. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY
TONIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A BROADER AREA OF SHRA AND LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 09Z. WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-SHSN
WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 3SM AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCD AT TIMES IN SHSN. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 10000FT EXCEPT
DOWN TO 8000FT IN HEAVIEST STORMS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JOE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.