Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 200955
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

THE SUBSIDENT REGION BEHIND THIS PASSING WAVE WILL BE EXPANDING
ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE AND WE SHOULD SEE A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...LINGERING OVER THE
CENTRAL DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THE LONGEST. PWAT TIME SERIES INDICATES
DRYING OCCURRING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...DROPPING TO
UNDER A THIRD OF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON IS WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL THOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY FORM ALONG THE RIDGES AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NAM 1.5 PVU FIELDS INDICATES SOMEWHAT OF A
MORE DEFINED WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH MAY ALLOW
SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE DO EXPECT A
BETTER DOWNTURN TO CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW AND EVEN LESS
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY THOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. THE DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL WARMUP TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE FORECAST AND TRENDING THIS WAY IN THE
CURRENT GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FLATTEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHWESTERN US SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 5C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE
10KFT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SLIGHT FASTER AND A BIT STRONGER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. NEITHER SYSTEM IS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT...BUT WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 9KFT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST
IMPACTED TAF SITES WILL ASPEN AND EAGLE WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
MOST LIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 1300 UTC. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...MPM


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