Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 251746
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1146 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH RAIN OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS...AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH A QUICK 6 INCHES REPORTED AT SILVERTON BY 8AM
MDT. EXPECT THIS FIRST ROUND TO WIND DOWN LATE THIS MORNING. ALSO
AS THE DAY WARMS...ANY SNOW/SLUSH ON THE ROADWAYS WILL MELT. WHILE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...
MELTING AND SETTLING WILL KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 9000 FEET THROUGH NOON...TO
COVER THE ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING. THE WATCH IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AS STRONG H3 JET CLOSES OFF
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SPLITTING TROUGH. THIS NEW CLOSED LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO NEAR ALBUQUERQUE BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SYSTEM TAPS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP OFF THE BAJA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL
KICK OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY AND HAVE
UNDERCUT THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES..ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

BY TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT SLIDES IN AS THE LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. H7 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -2C BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP AS LOW AS 7500
FEET...ALTHOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 10K.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WE CAN WRAP INTO
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERN TAP OF MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE
LOW. NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP INTO ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR
THE HIGHER PEAKS...BUT HAVE ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS
ABOVE 10K FEET FOR ZONES 9...12...18 AND 19. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
MAKE FINAL CALL ON WATCH OR WARNING PRODUCTS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
6 PLUS INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SAN JUANS AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE 10K MARK.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS
NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS
REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 9...12...18 AND 19...WHICH COMPRISE
THE GRAND MESA...WESTERN SAN JUAN MTS AND THE WEST ELKS ABOVE
10,000 FEET. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING
FROM EASTER NM TO THE PAN HANDLES OF TX AND OK WITH PRECIP
CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THIS FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FALLING OVER THE ZONES WILL
WATCHES...WITH THE SNOWFALL DIMINISHING OVER ZONE 9
FIRST...FOLLOWED BY 19...12 THEN 18. 700 MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST OF THE STORM SUN NGT AND MON MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE DECLINE.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND TUE MORNING A SHORT WAVE
PROJECTED TO DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE SLOW-MOVING LOW MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTURN IN PRECIP OVER THE CO MTS AND HIGH PLATEAU.
LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AND TUE
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE FROM WEST WED AND PAST EAST OF THE
AREA THU EVENING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW BEHIND THE
RIDGE SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK IN MOUNTAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST TODAY AS A WET...MULTIPART WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LINE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH WESTERN
COLORADO FROM KSBS SOUTHWEST TO THE PARADOX VALLEY. BEHIND THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE A BREAK...BUT THIS IS WHERE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR ALONG THE
LINE OF SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD KEGE AND KASE...THEN VFR FOR
A BIT BEFORE POTENTIAL IFR AGAIN AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEE 18Z AND 05Z. MORE STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ018-019.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ009-012-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JAM


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