Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 022359
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
559 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS THAT CUTS ACROSS NE UTAH
INTO NW COLORADO CORNER. STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE ACROSS NW COLORADO AND EXPECT CRAIG...MEEKER AND STEAMBOAT
SPRINGS TO GET A BRIEF STORM/SHOWER AND GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. POSSIBLY REACHING RIFLE...GLENWOOD
SPRINGS AND EAGLE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUAN AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER. FARTHER SOUTH...THE ELEVATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS
LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL LIGHT SHOWERS THAT EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SHOW THE MOISTURE REACHING THE SRN BORDER...BUT LIGHT PCPN STAYS
SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

THE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPSTREAM LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. INSTABILITY
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BOTH INCH UPWARD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER SHEAR AXIS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE VALLEYS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING JUST A TAD AND HIGHS TOMORROW
SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES. STABILIZATION OF THE PBL SHOULD
OCCUR AFTER SUNSET WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING.
HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND WE
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO SOME BETTER ALIGNMENT ON LARGE
SCALE FEATURES ACROSS NOAM IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. A BIT
MORE SEPARATION IN THE OUTCOME ARISES BY LATE WEEK BUT WITH THE
PATTERN IN PLACE THIS SHOULD BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE
KICKING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS STRONGER LOW
MOVES FARTHER INLAND IF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...IT
WILL BE SPLITTING INTO TWO PARTS...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
RIDGING OFF THE LEFT COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW
A DEEPER TROUGH TO BE CARVED OUT OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE
PARENT LOW WILL BASICALLY SPIN AROUND ITSELF OVER NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART THIS SOLUTION LEAVES A DRY
SLOT OVER OUR CWA AND THE EXPECTED DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION LATE
WEEK. WHEN THIS LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
STUMBLING ON GOING INTO THE LATE FORECAST PERIOD. SO FOR NOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
CWA...FOLLOWED BY A DOWNTURN...THEN AGAIN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AS THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND EARLY THIS WEEK THEN SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z AND BECOME MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AFTER THAT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ALSO DIE DOWN. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH MORE COVERAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. VCSH AND VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR TAF SITES WITH BIGGEST
CONCERN BEING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. VFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. EXPECT BUILDUPS TO START BETWEEN 17 TO 18Z WITH
STORMS AND SHOWERS FORMING BETWEEN 20 TO 21Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR



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