Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 061653
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...
CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO
DRIFT EWRD. WHILE THE AXIS OF SAID TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE COLORADO
PLAINS...ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND WILL
KEEP PRECIP GOING FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS BEING BORNE
OUT BY LOCAL OBS REPORTING -RA FROM PAGOSA SPRINGS AND DURANGO UP
INTO TELLURIDE AND FARTHER NORTH INTO ASPEN...RIFLE AND AS FAR
NORTH AND WEST AS VERNAL UT. MODELS WERE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE TO
COVERAGE FROM NOW THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY WHEN THE BULK OF PRECIP
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE SRN VALLEYS AND SAN JUANS AND SERN UT. ONCE
THAT HAPPENS THOUGH...SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN WORK ON THE
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING SOME STORMS AND SHOWERS TO FORM AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS SO A RETURN TO THE MORE
HIGHER TERRAIN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LOOKS A SAFE BET
THROUGH SUNSET.

BY LATE TONIGHT...MOST PRECIP WILL END THOUGH A FEW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY HUG THE MTNS. FOR THURSDAY...A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN OVER CALIFORNIA WHILE MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO REMAINS IN A DRY SLOT. MODELS
HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS GENERALLY
WITH LITTLE ELSE ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN USUAL BUT RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINS TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND THAN 24 HOURS
PRIOR...AND BOTH INDICATED THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BRINGING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE WRAPPED SYSTEM
DRIFTS TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY HERALDING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LESS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WARMING CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AS FLOW AGAIN SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
BEHIND A SYSTEM RETREATING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH OBSCURATION OF MUCH OF THE RIDGELINES AND PEAKS. SUNSHINE
IN EASTERN UTAH HAS HELPED DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
BEGIN TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAIN
FORECAST TERMINALS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS VFR WILL DOMINATE...BUT MAY TEMPORARILY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR IF A HEAVIER SHOWER IS IN THE VCNTY. DRIER AIR INVADES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM AND WILL BE MONITORING
THIS THREAT FOR FUTURE FORECAST ISSUANCES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT


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