Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE FREEZE WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CO FOR THIS
MORNING HAS EXPIRED. AT 9AM MDT...TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED TO 37F
DEGREES AT KCEZ...CORTEZ. I AM CONFIDENT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
ZONE 21 HAVE ALSO WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING. NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR THAT
SAME AREA. SO THE FREEZE WATCH FOR EARLY SAT MORNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME PRECIPITATION EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GRAND VALLEY
AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL UT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST... AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN FLIPPING TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS...INCLUDING GRAND JUNCTION. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
BOOST POPS HIGHER AND DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT LOWER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND THEY SHOULD FLIP BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW HAS SHIFTED EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER JUST EAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 6+ INCHES ON THE GRAND MESA AND IN THE
CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN UINTAS SAW A BREAK LAST
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN TODAY IN
NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BAND OF PRECIP WHICH CAME THROUGH THE GRAND
MESA LATE LAST NIGHT HEADED TOWARD THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THIS AREA OF
SOUTHEAST UTAH. DID NOT GO ELEVATION BASED SINCE H7 TEMPS THIS
MORNING LOOK TO STICK AROUND -6C TO -7C DURING THE TIME OF THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW SEEMS TO BE CONSIDERING A
NORTHEASTWARD EXODUS TO THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WESTERN SLOPE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT OF OUTLIER
BRINGING A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING INSTEAD OF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TODAY...THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE THIS BAND REACHES
THE AREA. WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND -4C TO -5C TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND THE 6500 FT LEVEL.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANGE IMPACT AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A GORGE EVENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW SO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE
STEAMBOAT/GORE RANGE/PARK RANGE AREAS IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL HAVE EXITED WESTERN
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL FINALLY PROVIDE THE KICK TO GET THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW
WEAK PIECES OF UPPER SUPPORT DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EVEN WITH THE LOW DEPARTING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPS...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENT ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL...THE PATTERN APPEARS RATHER WET FOR
THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROS THE FORECAST AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CO. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
BY LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS SNOW...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN
THE VALLEYS FROM PRECIPITATION OR FOG. VFR CONDITIONS FROM KCEZ-KDRO-
KPSO THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN AFTER 18Z. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL AFFECT
KVEL UNTIL 01Z THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED OF THE
UPPER LOW...MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COLORADO AFTER 12Z SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ014-017.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ019.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ023.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD



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