Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 010615
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1215 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

A STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS
REACHING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO AND FIRING OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS ACROSS UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING. WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET...SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS BEING
INITIATED BY TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE AND WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY
UNDERNEATH THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. A SPIKE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW WILL RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR TOMORROW...MAKING IT A BIT EASIER TO INITIATE SHOWERS IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER UTAH AND COLORADO. AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST SUNDAY...A H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL SWING BY
THE UT/WY/CO BORDER SUNDAY MORNING CREATING A GREATER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING OVER SOCAL AND NORTHERN BAJA CA ON
MONDAY WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
NEWEST 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH COLORADO MUCH FURTHER EAST. IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
HEADS FURTHER EAST...THEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE
FRONT RANGE AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY EXISTS
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ON AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF MIDWEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL THEN POTENTIALLY DROP BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS COOLER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SETTLES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

SHALLOW COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ERN UINTA BASIN AND NW COLORADO
WITH WIND SHIFTS FROM THE N-NE. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z.

NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-19Z FRIDAY WITH
VFR PREVAILING.

AFTER 19Z...SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
HIGH TERRAIN. BY LATE IN THE DAY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE MAY DRIFT
OVER THE ADJACENT LOWER VALLEYS. ELEVATED TAF SITES SUCH AS
KASE...KEGE...KTEX COULD OBSERVE A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS. -TSRA COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KGJT...KRIL...AND
KMTJ BETWEEN 21Z-02Z. AFTER 02Z...CONVECTION DISSIPATES FOR THE
DAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF


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